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US Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q1 24)

All-property values are down by 15% since mid-2022. But, with cap rates set to climb toward 5.5% by the end of the forecast period, we think capital value falls have some way to go still, with the total decline set to reach 26%. For offices, the structural decline in occupier demand will drive a price fall of 43%, surpassing that seen in the GFC. Retail stands out as the best performing sector for the 2024-28 period.

At a metro level, the relative winners over the coming years will mostly be in the South, where all property types stand to benefit from stronger population and employment growth. The big losers will be the six major coastal markets and many West coast markets thanks to poor affordability, long commute times and growing crime rates. 

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