GDP growth will come in below consensus in most EMs this year, with the notable exceptions of India and Taiwan. Although stubborn wage growth means the pace of disinflation is likely to slow from here, we think the EM monetary easing cycle will broaden out in the coming months as Asian central banks join their Central European and Latin American counterparts in cutting rates. Our financial risk indicators suggest that vulnerabilities built up over the past few years in the emerging world have begun to ease, though risks remain in some frontier markets.
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