Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments.
The latest monthly activity data suggest that Mexico and Brazil ended 2023 on a weak note, a trend we expect to continue this year. But we think the Andean economies are on track to stage a recovery. The big falls in inflation in the region are behind us and we think inflation will be a bit higher than most expect this year. While interest rates in parts of the Andes are likely to be cut relatively aggressively in the coming months, policymakers in Brazil, Mexico and Colombia are likely to tread more carefully. Generally, consensus interest rate forecasts look a bit too dovish.
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