The faster-than-expected fall in wage growth in November suggests the unexpected rebound in CPI inflation in December will be fleeting. We still think that by April CPI inflation will have fallen below the 2.0% target, and further declines in utility prices suggest it may even fall to just above zero later this year. This lends some support to our view that interest rates may be cut all the way to 3.00% in 2025.
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