Our Global Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments.
The latest data indicate some improvement in industry at the start of this year. But this hasn’t altered our view that global growth excluding China will be slightly below trend in 2024. This will be driven by lacklustre consumer spending in advanced economies. Surveys of consumer confidence remained weak in February, and retail sales – which have been falling in Europe – ticked down in the US in January. Meanwhile, although inflation surprised to the upside in February in the US and euro-zone, we still think inflation in DMs will return to central bank targets by the end of this year. Accordingly, DM central banks will join a growing number of EM central banks in cutting rates this year. In China, while the ongoing fiscal stimulus put a floor under home sales in February, strong structural headwinds should cause growth to weaken by the end of this year.
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