Our Global Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments.
We think that the Fed and several other DM central banks will deliver more policy rate cuts this year and next than investors currently anticipate. As a result, we forecast that Treasury yields will end 2024 below their current levels, putting downward pressure on yields across the world. While near-term economic weakness might mean that “risky” assets underwhelm in the next couple of months, we suspect that they will fare quite well over the year as a whole, as economic growth ultimately recovers. In the case of equities, we think that growing enthusiasm around AI technology will push prices much higher still in the next couple of years, particularly in the US.
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