Q1 GDP releases have confirmed that the major economies avoided recession at the start of the year and some of the more recent survey data suggest that this resilience continued into Q2. The composite PMI output index for developed economies rose from 52.6 to 53.7 in April, suggesting not only that growth has remained positive but that it has accelerated. However, it is worth noting that the PMIs have been the most optimistic of the survey indices lately and others such as the US ISM and the euro-zone EC Economic Sentiment Indicator have broadly flatlined at levels consistent with little or no growth. One possible reason for this is that the latter two cover the retail sector whereas the PMIs do not. In any case, monetary indicators confirm that policy is becoming a stronger headwind to economic activity and we still suspect that the major economies will struggle to grow in the months ahead.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to gain:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services