As the lockdowns have largely come to an end in both countries, output is starting to recover. In New Zealand, most activity is now allowed to resume, though gatherings are limited to 100 people. In Australia, states are easing restrictions at different paces. In Victoria, a strict lockdown remains in place until June. Non-essential shops have begun to reopen and cafes and restaurants are allowed to seat a limited number of customers in both Queensland and New South Wales. However, people remain cautious and normal behaviour has not yet resumed. That is evident in the apple movement data which show only a gradual pick-up in Australia. And while movement has picked up more quickly in New Zealand, it’s coming from a lower base. With the border set to remain closed for most visitors for a prolonged period, we think it will take months if not years for activity to return to pre-virus levels.
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