Are PDRs the answer to mis-matches in supply?

New plans have extended Permitted Development Rights (PDRs) on commercial property, allowing swifter conversion to residential use. These have been cautiously welcomed, but, in our view, they do not radically shift the outlook for either residential or commercial markets. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this UK Housing Market Update to clients of our UK Commercial Property service.
Andrew Burrell Chief Property Economist
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UK Housing Market Update

Where is all the stock?

Estate agents undoubtedly have a very limited number of homes on the books. But the idea that the lack of supply is due to few homes being put up for sale is a misconception. High numbers of transactions inevitably mean that listings are higher than usual, but they are being outstripped by even stronger demand as large numbers of first-time buyers look for homes.

24 November 2021

UK Housing Market Chart Book

Little sign of momentum in prices abating

The end of the stamp duty holiday has had remarkably little impact on buyer demand. If anything, the imbalance between strong home purchase demand and limited supply is intensifying. Indeed, Rightmove reported that the average time to sell a home continued to drop in October. That’s consistent with strong competition between buyers bidding up prices further in the near term, although in London these pressures appear to be weaker.

19 November 2021

UK Housing Market Update

Increase in mortgage rates to be limited

Anticipation of higher interest rates has pushed up fixed mortgage rates. And with scope for banks to absorb higher costs in their margins now exhausted, future changes in interest rate expectations will be fully passed through to mortgage rates. But as we think the forthcoming rise in interest rates is already priced in, we are not expecting mortgage rates to jump much higher.

12 November 2021

More from Andrew Burrell

Euro-zone Commercial Property Chart Book

Tentative signs of a turning point for property

All-property capital values rose for the third consecutive quarter in Q2, leaving them less than 1% below their pre-virus level. The improvement was driven by a decline in all-property yields, though rents also rose slightly on a quarterly basis for the first time since Q1 2020. The outlook is encouraging for occupier demand and investment in the coming quarters given economic activity is expected to rebound strongly. However, depressed tourist spending and online shopping will drag on the retail recovery. And higher vacancy and more remote working will limit the improvement in the office sector.

18 August 2021

UK Commercial Property Focus

What will COVID-19 mean for the largest global cities?

Cities are central to property performance. And the largest are seen as hugely important by investors. But the pandemic has turned many received ideas about real estate on their head and we think that performance in gateway markets will remain relatively weak after COVID-19. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this UK Commercial Property Focus to clients of our US Commercial Property service & European Commercial Property Service

10 August 2021

UK Housing Market Data Response

Halifax House Prices (Jul.)

Halifax house prices returned to growth on a monthly last month, partly reversing a weak June figure. But the underlying trend, as the stamp duty discount is phased out, is for a modest slowdown. Nonetheless, we expect house prices to cool rather than collapse over the rest of the year.

6 August 2021
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