US Commercial Property Update

Foreign capital flows to the US set to stay at low levels

The US’ relatively strong economic growth outlook and large data center market are likely to support a pick-up in foreign demand for US assets after the cross-border share of purchases fell to at...

· 4 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

A strong Q4 doesn’t mean UK commercial property investment is set to boom

Commercial property investment hit a record high in Q4, but we doubt that signals the start of a strong recovery. Admittedly, a fall in financing costs will give transactions something of a boost in...

· 4 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Alternatives and prime assets lead the way in RICS survey

The RICS survey showed overall occupier and investment market sentiment held in the doldrums at the end of 2025, with prospects for the major sectors muted. However, the outlook for prime assets was...

· 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Why have data center REIT prices and asset values diverged?

The divergence between data center REIT performance and data center asset values over the last year appears to reflect the high level of uncertainty in the sector. Questions over power constraints...

· 4 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Banks still keen to lend to UK commercial real estate

A divergence between banks’ expectations for house and commercial real estate prices may explain why they are still keen to ramp up lending to commercial real estate even as the availability of credit...

· 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Slowing demand means UK industrial property will underperform

A weak economic outlook, increased efficiency of new buildings and worsening affordability are all weighing on demand for industrial assets, which has fallen to a 15-year low according to RICS. That...

· 4 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

UK commercial property returns to hit five-year high in 2026

As we expected, and in contrast to consensus, all-property yields saw no compression in 2025. But stronger-than-expected rental growth means our call for all-property total returns of 6.6% in 2025...

· 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

IPF UK Commercial Property Consensus Forecasts (Dec. 25)

The December IPF consensus survey forecasted all-property total returns of 7.8% p.a. over 2025-29, more-or-less unchanged from September. Indeed, the total return forecast has been stable for all of...

· 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

What does the Budget mean for UK commercial property?

With our 10-year gilt yield forecast unchanged and the impact of changes to business rates broadly revenue neutral over the next five year years, we are not changing are commercial property forecasts...

· 4 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

New office forecasts for seven regional UK cities

We have augmented our UK Commercial Property coverage with the addition of office forecasts for seven major regional cities. Overall performance is informed by our views on the RoUK market, but...

· 6 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Key client questions from our commercial property in 2026 roundtables

Recently we held a series of roundtable discussions with clients in our London office about the outlook for commercial real estate in 2026 and beyond. This note shares our answers to some of the most...

· 6 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

RICS survey flags concerns over the UK commercial property recovery

The RICS survey showed that occupier demand dropped back in Q3 as concerns over the economic outlook, uncertainty around the Budget and rising interests rates all sapped confidence. That has cut...

· 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

How concerning is the rise in ‘extend and pretend’ for UK commercial property loans?

The surge in net lending by banks to commercial property firms may in part reflect borrowers being forced to refinance loans on buildings they have been unable to sell. But in contrast to the GFC...

· 4 mins read

Global Commercial Property Update

Retail and residential sectors set to outperform globally

In a period of slow economic growth but stabilising inflation and earnings growth, we expect the residential sector to see the strongest rental growth globally, with industrial close behind thanks to...

· 4 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

New EPC analysis points to tough times ahead for offices in some UK cities

Upcoming EPC requirements, coupled with reduced occupier demand due to remote work, mean investors are shunning secondary offices, triggering a sharp decline in capital values. Our new dashboard on...

· 4 mins read