Halifax House Prices (Jul.)

Halifax house prices returned to growth on a monthly last month, partly reversing a weak June figure. But the underlying trend, as the stamp duty discount is phased out, is for a modest slowdown. Nonetheless, we expect house prices to cool rather than collapse over the rest of the year.
Andrew Burrell Chief Property Economist
Continue reading

More from UK Housing

UK Housing Market Update

Where is all the stock?

Estate agents undoubtedly have a very limited number of homes on the books. But the idea that the lack of supply is due to few homes being put up for sale is a misconception. High numbers of transactions inevitably mean that listings are higher than usual, but they are being outstripped by even stronger demand as large numbers of first-time buyers look for homes.

24 November 2021

UK Housing Market Chart Book

Little sign of momentum in prices abating

The end of the stamp duty holiday has had remarkably little impact on buyer demand. If anything, the imbalance between strong home purchase demand and limited supply is intensifying. Indeed, Rightmove reported that the average time to sell a home continued to drop in October. That’s consistent with strong competition between buyers bidding up prices further in the near term, although in London these pressures appear to be weaker.

19 November 2021

UK Housing Market Update

Increase in mortgage rates to be limited

Anticipation of higher interest rates has pushed up fixed mortgage rates. And with scope for banks to absorb higher costs in their margins now exhausted, future changes in interest rate expectations will be fully passed through to mortgage rates. But as we think the forthcoming rise in interest rates is already priced in, we are not expecting mortgage rates to jump much higher.

12 November 2021

More from Andrew Burrell

UK Commercial Property Data Response

IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI (Jul.)

July’s construction PMI figure was slightly disappointing compared with the previous month’s highs. But it continued to point to robust activity and we think any dip is most likely a reflection of material and labour shortages rather than any weakening in underlying demand. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this UK Commercial Property Data Response to clients of our UK Housing Service.

5 August 2021

UK Commercial Property Chart Book

Strong momentum not expected to last

The acceleration in all-property capital growth in June reflected a sharp fall in yields and strong rental growth. But, even as a fast economic rebound boosts occupier demand in the coming months, we think this rate of growth in values will not be sustained. Our expectations are that structural factors will hold back the recovery in the retail and office sectors, which will weigh on the all-property average this year.

23 July 2021

UK Commercial Property Update

Office markets to shrug off end of furlough

The government’s furlough scheme is regarded as one of the successes of the UK’s coronavirus policy response, but all good things must come to an end. Over the next few months, its unwinding will bring some risks, though we do not expect these to have a major impact on UK office markets.

2 July 2021
↑ Back to top