The implications of the pandemic decline in births

Birth rates have fallen in several advanced economies during the pandemic. Although we think that fertility rates will bounce back and there won’t be material long-term impacts, this presents a small downside risk to some of our long run forecasts for these advanced economies and may have implications for future policymaking.
Justin Chaloner Senior Economist
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Long Run Returns Monitor

Long Run Returns Monitor (Nov.)

Our monthly Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes, as well as a summary of the macroeconomic forecasts which underpin them. All projections in this publication are as of 23rd November 2021. A more detailed explanation of our views can be found in our annual Long Run Economic Outlook and Long Run Asset Allocation Outlook.

25 November 2021

Long Run Update

COP26 a small step forward but much left to do

COP26 has progressed efforts to fight climate change, but there is still a significant gap between pledges and actual policies. Unless action ramps up this decade, countries may face a choice between accepting the costs of greater global warming or a rapid, and potentially disorderly, transition to a greener economy.

16 November 2021

Long Run Update

COP26 unlikely to alter economic outlook

The UN’s annual climate change conference, COP26, has the potential to be an important milestone but it is just one step along the path required to limit global warming. Accordingly, it will not on its own stop climate change from clouding the long-run economic outlook for many emerging markets in particular.

2 November 2021

More from Justin Chaloner

Long Run Update

Higher female participation to help India outperform

There is typically more scope for female participation rates to rise and boost labour supply in EMs. This is particularly so in India and is one reason why we expect its economy to outperform in the long run.

19 May 2021

Long Run Update

China & US censuses: don’t count on catch-up

The 2020 US and China censuses add to the reasons why we think China will struggle to overtake the US as the world’s largest economy. China’s birth rate has continued to fall and the population will peak earlier than previously thought, so demographics will become an even larger drag on GDP growth.

11 May 2021

Long Run Focus

Accelerated technology use will improve productivity

There is evidence that the pandemic has accelerated technology use, partly through increased equipment investment but mainly through a change in the way that people work. The effects on productivity might not be immediate or huge, but they will be positive. And perhaps the most important point is that the pandemic seems to have altered attitudes towards technology, making future adoption more likely. This supports our optimism about the long-run prospects for productivity growth in developed economies.

16 April 2021
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