Long Run Returns Monitor (Nov.)

Long Run Returns Monitor (Nov.)

Our monthly Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes, as well as a summary of the macroeconomic forecasts which underpin them. All projections in this publication are as of 23rd November 2021. A more detailed explanation of our views can be found in our annual Long Run Economic Outlook and Long Run Asset Allocation Outlook.
Oliver Allen Markets Economist
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Long Run Update

Our climate change assumptions

Ahead of publishing our latest Long-Term Outlook next month, this Update sets out the assumptions we have made in our long term forecasts about both climate change and the efforts to prevent it.

13 January 2022

Long Run Update

Ongoing pandemic to slow migration’s return to normal

The continued threat of new virus waves, and therefore fresh rounds of travel restrictions, suggests that global migration flows could remain subdued for a while yet. However, we continue to doubt that the pandemic will have any major lasting impact on migration flows.

16 December 2021

Long Run Update

COP26 a small step forward but much left to do

COP26 has progressed efforts to fight climate change, but there is still a significant gap between pledges and actual policies. Unless action ramps up this decade, countries may face a choice between accepting the costs of greater global warming or a rapid, and potentially disorderly, transition to a greener economy.

16 November 2021

More from Oliver Allen

Asset Allocation Update

Taking stock of potential corporate tax reforms

This Update answers several questions on the Biden administration’s latest proposals for US corporate taxes as well as the global tax deal recently agreed among the world’s major economies. The proposed changes are probably, at the margin, a reason to think that US equities will underperform. Within the US market, we suspect the earnings of technology and pharmaceuticals companies would see the largest hit.

19 November 2021

Asset Allocation Update

We expect LatAm equities to trail those in EM EMEA

We think that MSCI’s Emerging Markets (EM) Latin America Index will continue to underperform its EM EMEA Index over the next couple of years, albeit not to the same extent as it has in 2021 so far.

12 November 2021

Capital Daily

Why isn’t high inflation taking a greater toll on the stock market?

US equities have shrugged off this year’s surge in inflation, probably because it has not coincided with either a rise in the real yields of Treasuries or weakness in corporate earnings. We expect a gradual climb in real yields and underwhelming economic growth to hold back the US stock market from here.

11 November 2021
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