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Long Run Returns Monitor (Nov.)

Our monthly Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes, as well as a summary of the macroeconomic forecasts which underpin them. All projections in this publication are as of 23rd November 2021. A more detailed explanation of our views can be found in our annual Long Run Economic Outlook and Long Run Asset Allocation Outlook.
Oliver Allen Markets Economist
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More from The Long Run

Long Run Update

Composition of spending will change as populations age

The composition of spending changes as consumers age, with a greater proportion allocated to healthcare, food and drink, and less to education, transport and recreation. The experience of countries that have already aged significantly, such as Japan, suggests that this will have a significant impact on employment in these sectors in countries that are set to age rapidly over the coming decades. What’s more, this could weigh on productivity growth as the sectors likely to see the greatest increase in demand are typically more labour-intensive.

1 August 2022

Long Run Update

S&P 500’s valuation points to mediocre long-term returns

US equities have plunged this year, but the S&P 500’s valuation remains a long way from looking low on most measures, including Shiller’s CAPE. This is a key reason why we expect the returns from US equities over the next decade or so to fall well short of those seen over the past ten years.

25 July 2022

Long Run Update

Which countries can offer lessons for ageing populations?

Ageing populations will be one of the main structural challenges facing many economies over the coming decades. Ahead of a series of work analysing what can be learned from countries ageing rapidly, this Update starts by looking at which those are.

14 July 2022

More from Oliver Allen

Asset Allocation Update

Taking stock of potential corporate tax reforms

This Update answers several questions on the Biden administration’s latest proposals for US corporate taxes as well as the global tax deal recently agreed among the world’s major economies. The proposed changes are probably, at the margin, a reason to think that US equities will underperform. Within the US market, we suspect the earnings of technology and pharmaceuticals companies would see the largest hit.

19 November 2021

Asset Allocation Update

We expect LatAm equities to trail those in EM EMEA

We think that MSCI’s Emerging Markets (EM) Latin America Index will continue to underperform its EM EMEA Index over the next couple of years, albeit not to the same extent as it has in 2021 so far.

12 November 2021

Capital Daily

Why isn’t high inflation taking a greater toll on the stock market?

US equities have shrugged off this year’s surge in inflation, probably because it has not coincided with either a rise in the real yields of Treasuries or weakness in corporate earnings. We expect a gradual climb in real yields and underwhelming economic growth to hold back the US stock market from here.

11 November 2021
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