Russian energy sanctions, non-Gulf external strains build

The US and UK embargoes on Russian energy exports could open the door for the Gulf countries to raise oil production more quickly and implement their long-term strategies of capturing market share. This would provide a significant boost to GDP growth. Elsewhere, the war in Ukraine has caused commodity prices to rise sharply and, outside of the Gulf, current account deficits will widen as import bills jump. Downward pressure is likely to mount on the currencies of Egypt and Tunisia, with depreciation in the latter pushing the government closer towards default.