Unpacking Banxico’s minutes, Sinovac success?

The fairly hawkish minutes to Banxico's last meeting, where it delivered a surprise 25bp hike, reaffirm our initial view that more tightening is in the pipeline. We now expect a further 125bp of hikes, to 5.50%, by Q1 2022 (previously 5.25%). Otherwise, new virus cases are now falling sharply in Chile and Uruguay which may be encouraging evidence that their rapid vaccine rollouts, which primarily use the Sinovac jab, are helping to quash infections.
Nikhil Sanghani Emerging Markets Economist
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Latin America Data Response

Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jan.)

The fall in Mexico’s inflation to 7.1% y/y in the first two weeks of the year gave the first sign that inflation has peaked and we think that it will continue to trend lower over the coming months. That said, the further rise in core inflation, to 6.1% y/y, will be a concern for the central bank, suggesting that it will deliver another 50bp rate hike, to 6.00%, at its meeting next month.

24 January 2022

Latin America Economics Weekly

What does FinMin Marcel mean for Chile?

President-elect Boric’s announcement today that (now outgoing) Governor of the Central Bank, Mario Marcel, will be Chile’s next Finance Minister is a clear signal that his government will pursue prudent fiscal policy. While the news is going down well with investors, we think that lingering political, fiscal and external risks will ultimately make it difficult for the peso to keep hold of its recent gains. We expect that the currency will weaken by 5-10% against the US dollar by year-end.

21 January 2022

Latin America Economic Outlook

Falling to the back of the pack

The regional recovery will lag further behind others in the emerging world in the coming years. The Omicron-led surge in virus cases presents a risk to growth in the near term, but we suspect that the economic hit will be small. Larger drags will come from the unwinding of fiscal support and further monetary tightening in response to high inflation. Our rate forecasts are generally more hawkish than the consensus. Falling commodity prices will also weigh on growth in the region, and will cause current account balances to deteriorate, with external positions in Chile and Colombia looking increasing shaky. Lingering fiscal and political risks will keep local financial markets under pressure in much of Latin America, particularly ahead of elections in Brazil and Colombia this year.

20 January 2022

More from Nikhil Sanghani

Latin America Data Response

Mexico Consumer Prices (Jun.)

The rise in Mexico’s core inflation to 4.6% y/y in June was largely driven by temporary factors which will gradually unwind. Nonetheless, given Banxico’s recent hawkish shift, and with headline and core inflation set to stay above the 2-4% target range this year, we expect more rate hikes over the coming months.

8 July 2021

Latin America Economics Weekly

Fallen angel and a rising star

Colombia’s second sovereign ratings downgrade to junk status was already largely priced in to local financial markets, but they could come under renewed pressure as public debt risks intensify over the coming months. That could lead to a hawkish shift by the central bank. There is also a risk that Chile’s central bank will begin an earlier tightening cycle than we currently expect given the strength of the incoming activity data, which confirm the economy’s place as the region’s outperformer. Finally, while Brazil’s public debt-to-GDP ratio has been on a downward trajectory of late, we doubt that this trend will last.

2 July 2021

Latin America Economics Update

Peru: Lessons from Humala’s presidency

Peru’s president-in-waiting Pedro Castillo seems more moderate than many initially feared, which bears a striking resemblance to former leader Ollanta Humala. The latter’s tenure suggests that, provided there are market-friendly appointments to the new cabinet, local financial markets could soon rebound from their post-election slump. However, compared to Mr. Humala’s time in office, there is now a higher risk of looser fiscal policies, which may keep markets on the backfoot over the medium term.

1 July 2021
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