Latin America Economics Weekly Banxico outlook, Brazil GDP, Colombia election Given the Fed’s hawkish shift and the recent sell-off in the Mexican peso, we now think that Banxico will step up the pace of tightening with a 75bp rate hike next week, to 7.75%. Elsewhere, in Brazil... 17th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s current account deficit flashing red Chile is likely to run a current account deficit of 7% of GDP this year, the widest since 1985. Worryingly, this deficit is being increasingly funded by volatile portfolio inflows, making the economy... 13th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s IMF review, Mexican industry recovering This week's staff-level agreement between the IMF and Argentina, for the first review of its $44bn deal, gave little assurance that the Fund will knuckle down on the country’s growing inflation and... 10th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (May 2022) The fall in Brazilian inflation to 11.7% y/y in May suggests that Copom will continue to slow the pace of tightening with a 50bp Selic rate hike, to 13.25%, next week. But with inflation set to stay... 9th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (May) Mexico’s inflation rate stabilised at 7.7% y/y in May and we expect that it will trend lower in the coming months. This may temper some of the hawkish sentiment at Banxico. We think that it will stick... 9th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: tightening cycle will go further than most expect The guidance in the Monetary Policy Report released by Chile’s central bank today, following on from its 75bp rate hike to 9.00% yesterday, suggests that the tightening cycle has a little further to... 8th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s economy showing signs of life The solid 1.0% q/q rise in Brazil’s GDP in Q1, alongside the strength of the recent survey data, reinforce our view that the economy will fare better than most expect this year. However, we still... 6th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Reasons for optimism in Colombia and Brazil? Populist Rodolfo Hernández is now the favourite to become Colombia’s next president and this has buoyed local financial markets this week, but we think that the scope for a further rally is limited... 1st June 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Colombia: no more business as usual The first round of Colombia’s presidential election has set up a close race between left-wing Gustavo Petro and populist Rodolfo Hernández in the second round vote on 19 th June. The vote was a major... 30th May 2022 · 14 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Colombia election: judging the opportunities and risks Colombia’s upcoming presidential election could result in the country’s first left-wing government in recent decades, headed by Gustavo Petro. While he is unlikely to be as radical as many expect... 26th May 2022 · 17 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (May) While Mexico’s headline inflation edged down to 7.6% y/y in the first two weeks of May, this will provide little comfort to the central bank as price pressures remain stubbornly strong. The risks are... 24th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP (Q1) The 0.8% q/q contraction in Chile’s GDP in Q1 suggests the economy is coming back down to earth after a stellar 2021, and there is a growing chance of a recession this year. Meanwhile, the current... 18th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s economy to beat expectations this year The solid 1.0% q/q rise in Colombia’s GDP in Q1 suggests the economy came through the Omicron virus wave in good shape and, given the recent surge in oil prices, we expect above-consensus growth of 6... 17th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Hikes, hikes, hikes The hawkish tilt by Mexico ’s central bank at its meeting yesterday, when it raised its raised its policy rate by 50bp (to 7.00%), suggests that Banxico may soon shift its tightening cycle into a... 13th May 2022 · 7 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Apr.) The rise in Mexico’s headline and core inflation in April, to 7.7% y/y and 7.2% y/y respectively, has a bit further to run in the near term. This will prompt Banxico to deliver another 50bp rate hike... 9th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Petro vs. Gutiérrez This week Colombia's Liberal Party offered its backing to market-friendly Federico Gutiérrez – who currently trails left-wing Gustavo Petro in the polls – ahead of next month's presidential election... 29th April 2022 · 7 mins read
