Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Nov.) The disappointing 0.1% m/m fall in Mexican industrial production in November raises the chances that the economy slipped into a recession last quarter. And while auto production looks to have... 11th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America: five key calls for 2022 We think that Latin American GDP growth will slow by more than most expect in 2022, while inflation will also drop more a bit more quickly than the consensus anticipates. This feeds into our... 10th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Omicron cases, BCRA hikes, Banxico minutes New virus cases have jumped almost five-fold in Latin America over the past two weeks as the contagious Omicron variant is taking hold, but there are reasons to think that the economic fallout will be... 7th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Omicron may hinder already weakening recoveries Recoveries across Latin America have lost momentum in Q4 even though, unlike in other regions such as Europe, new COVID-19 cases generally remain low and containment measures are still light-touch at... 22nd December 2021 · 14 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s election: first thoughts on Boric’s victory Gabriel Boric’s victory in Chile’s presidential election is another sign that the country is moving towards greater state intervention in the economy. A radical shift in policymaking seems unlikely... 20th December 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly 2021 in review For the last Weekly of the year we look back at some our key 2021 forecasts. Our biggest wins were predicting that Brazil’s government would effectively cast aside its spending cap and that Colombia... 17th December 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico starting to act tough on inflation Banxico added to this week’s global central banking bonanza with a surprise 50bp hike, to 5.50%, and the widespread hawkish shift on the Board suggests that policymakers will act more aggressively to... 17th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s central bank takes another hawkish step Chile’s central bank raised its policy rate by another 125bp yesterday, to 4.00%, and the accompanying statement, alongside today’s Monetary Policy Report, suggest that its tightening cycle will be... 15th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Lat Am’s recovery falling behind other EMs The recent batch of GDP figures showed that growth in Latin America as a whole picked up in Q3, but the region’s recovery so far has been one of the weakest in the emerging world. And growth prospects... 13th December 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Oct.) The small 0.6% m/m rise in Mexican industrial production in October was helped by a rebound in auto production, suggesting the sector may be starting to turn a corner. However, the risk of further... 10th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Nov.) The further rise in Chile’s inflation to 6.7% y/y – the highest rate since late 2008 – will keep pressure on the central bank to deliver further aggressive monetary tightening. We expect another 125bp... 7th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Central banks and Omicron, Colombia CA risks The emergence of the Omicron variant presents a key risk to economic recoveries in the region, although the experience from the latest virus wave in the region provides a reason to think it will not... 3rd December 2021 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Red-hot Chile set to cool Chile’s economy has been operating above potential for several months but there are signs that activity is starting to cool. And policy tightening, falls in copper prices and the possibility of more... 1st December 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Unpacking the oddities in Mexican GDP The final estimate of Mexican Q3 GDP data was revised down to a 0.4% q/q fall (original -0.2% q/q), but the breakdown showed the contraction was almost entirely due to an outsourcing law that hit... 25th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Political storm clouds lifting for investors…for now Political developments in Latin America have generally turned in investors’ favour this month. Right-wing José Antonio Kast beat his left-wing rival, Gabriel Boric, in the first round of Chile’s... 24th November 2021 · 14 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Nov.) The surge in Mexico’s inflation to 7.05% y/y in the first two weeks of November – the highest since 2001 – was partly a result of unfavourable base effects, but underlying price pressures were also... 24th November 2021 · 2 mins read
