Latin America Economics Update A look ahead to Chile’s election The frontrunners in Sunday’s presidential election in Chile, Gabriel Boric and José Antonio Kast, hold different views on the desired size of the state in the economy, but both advocate relatively... 18th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP (Q3 2021) The 4.9% q/q surge in Chile’s GDP in Q3 took output not only above its pre-pandemic level but also its pre-crisis trend. The strength of the figures means that we now expect above-consensus growth of... 18th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Chile’s Problems Won’t Be Solved at the Ballot Box As Nikhil Sanghani of Capital Economics points out, fiscal policy is likely to remain loose whichever way the presidential race goes — whether with Boric’s larger state or, as is underestimated, with... 18th November 2021 · Bloomberg
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q3 2021) The stronger-than-expected 5.7% q/q jump in Colombia’s GDP in Q3 more than offset the setback in Q2, and took output 2.6% above its pre-pandemic level. While the recovery will slow from here, we now... 16th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina’s election: approaching a fork in the road The ruling Frente de Todos (FdT) coalition is likely to lose some of its power in congress in Argentina’s midterm elections on Sunday. Policymaking could subsequently go in one of two ways. Our... 10th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chile feeling the heat, Brazil bending the (fiscal) rules Strong September activity data out of Chile this week adds to signs that that the economy is starting to overheat, which will put even more pressure on the central bank to take some steam out of the... 5th November 2021 · 7 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q3 Prov.) The surprise 0.2% q/q contraction in Mexico’s economy in Q3 was largely driven by lockdown-related disruption to the services sector, which should unwind in Q4 as restrictions have been eased. Even so... 29th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chile’s constitution, Brazil fiscal worries mounting This week marked the two-year anniversary of the mass protests in Chile which caused a political risk premium to emerge in local financial markets and the currency, and we think that lingering... 22nd October 2021 · 7 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Oct.) The further rise in Mexico’s core inflation rate to a 12-year high of 5.1% y/y in the first two weeks of October, which contributed to the rise in the headline rate to 6.1% y/y, will add to the... 22nd October 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Best of the recovery now over Easing virus outbreaks and the lifting of restrictions boosted recoveries across Latin America in Q3, but growth looks set to slow sharply over the coming quarters. The re-opening boost will soon fade... 19th October 2021 · 25 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly The fiscal risk of rising rates, Mercosur tariff cuts Central banks were once again in the spotlight this week after the supersized 125bp rate hike in Chile, but one issue that is often overlooked is the damaging impact of rising interest rates on public... 15th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: front-loaded tightening cycle has further to run The surprisingly large 125bp rate hike delivered by Chile’s central bank yesterday, to 2.75%, suggests that it will continue to front-load its tightening cycle to clamp down on high inflation. We now... 14th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Aug.) The stronger-than-expected 0.4% m/m rise in Mexico’s industrial production in August suggests that the economy may have held up better than we had previously anticipated in Q3. But, under the surface... 12th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Castillo moderates, Amlo’s intervention & ailing autos President Castillo’s cabinet reshuffle in Peru this week points towards more pragmatic policymaking which, while a possible headwind to near-term growth, should boost Peru’s medium- to long-term... 8th October 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Sep.) The jump in Chile’s inflation to 5.3% y/y in September suggests that the central bank may once again ramp up the pace of its tightening cycle. We now think it is more likely than not that it will... 8th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Sep.) The rise in Mexico’s headline and core inflation to 6.0% y/y and 4.9% y/y in September adds to our view that the central bank’s tightening cycle has much further to run. We expect a further 125bp of... 7th October 2021 · 2 mins read
