Latin America Economics Update Peru: Lessons from Humala’s presidency Peru’s president-in-waiting Pedro Castillo seems more moderate than many initially feared, which bears a striking resemblance to former leader Ollanta Humala. The latter’s tenure suggests that... 1st July 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Economic ‘immunity’ improving Latin America is once again the global epicentre of COVID-19 but, from an economic perspective, the region has built up significant immunity to the virus. Indeed, despite the surge in new virus cases... 29th June 2021 · 14 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Central banks turning hawkish, virus waves easing Latin American central banks are becoming increasingly hawkish, not just in Mexico (after yesterday's surprise rate hike), but also in Brazil and Chile. Colombia may soon join this club. While the... 25th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico: surprise hike a sign of things to come The surprise 25bp rate hike by Mexico’s central bank (to 4.25%) suggests that its reaction function is less dovish that we had expected, as it is now reacting to quell high inflation. With the... 25th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina’s NT outlook not as dire as many think Argentina’s GDP expanded by a stronger-than-expected 2.6% q/q in Q1 and, while the recent third virus wave has dragged down activity in Q2, we are sticking with our above-consensus forecast of 8%... 24th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jun.) The strength of the Mexican headline and core inflation readings in the first half of June is likely to prompt a more cautious approach by Banxico at its meeting later today. Even so, we suspect that... 24th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update A deep dive into Mexican inflation Headline Mexican inflation has now peaked and will drop back within Banxico’s 2-4% target range as the earlier spike in fuel inflation unwinds. In contrast, we expect that core inflation will continue... 21st June 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombian fiscal can-kicking, Brazil electric(ity) shock Colombia’s government recently outlined plans for more moderate fiscal austerity, but this still looks implausible given the current political backdrop. Lingering fiscal risks will probably keep local... 18th June 2021 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update A fresh look at Chile’s virus and vaccine trends Chile’s renewed lockdown measures provide further evidence that its rapid vaccination programme has a lot further to run to quash the virus. The good news is that the economy seems resilient to... 15th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Peru & Mexico elections, (another) Argentine default? A victory for left-wing populist Pedro Castillo in Peru’s presidential election on Sunday would probably send local financial markets into a tailspin, but we doubt that investors would have much to... 4th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Five key questions on Mexico’s midterm elections Sunday’s midterm elections in Mexico are widely seen as a referendum on President López Obrador’s tenure, and a strong result for his coalition could embolden him to pursue more interventionist... 2nd June 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Banxico sets a high bar for hikes, new virus worries The minutes to Banxico’s latest meeting revealed that Board members are becoming more wary about the outlook for inflation, but we think that there is a high bar for a tightening cycle to begin... 28th May 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Unpacking the political risks in Chile Chilean financial assets have been hit hard following the Constitutional Convention election, and this Update outlines three key political risks which could keep local markets under pressure over the... 27th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Political risks coming to the fore Political risks have intensified in the Andes this month, which could be part of a broader trend throughout the region. In Colombia, the protests against tax reforms have pushed policymakers away from... 26th May 2021 · 13 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (May) The drop in Mexico’s headline inflation to 5.8% y/y in the first half of May was driven by a sharp fall in energy inflation. While we expect that this trend will continue in the coming months, there... 24th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Assessing the fallout from Colombia’s fiscal drama Recent protests have pushed Colombia’s government away from the fiscal reforms that are needed to reduce the public debt ratio in the coming years. It’s therefore likely that the sovereign will lose... 10th May 2021 · 5 mins read
