Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q1 Prov.) The pick-up in Mexico’s GDP growth to 0.9% q/q last quarter was largely a result of a strong carryover from late 2021, and the economy was weakening sharply heading into Q2. As the headwinds from high... 29th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Food inflation a growing concern Inflation continues to march higher in Latin America, most recently driven by surging food prices owing to poor domestic weather conditions and rising global agricultural prices. This has led to... 27th April 2022 · 11 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Apr.) The rise in Mexico’s inflation to 7.7% y/y in the first two weeks of April was driven by a broad based strengthening of price pressures, which will be a concern for the central bank. This, alongside... 22nd April 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook High commodity prices won’t lift all boats The surge in commodity prices will drive stronger regional growth than the consensus expects this year, but not all economies in Latin America will benefit. While Brazil and Colombia will see a terms... 21st April 2022 · 26 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Boric on the backfoot, Argentine inflation concerns The political fight over a fresh round of pension withdrawals in Chile underlines the Boric administration's struggle to wean the economy off accommodative policies. This will heap more pressure on... 14th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Feb.) The disappointing 1.0% m/m fall in Mexico’s industrial production in February was partly because a temporary boost to mining output at the start of the year reversed course. But there were broader... 11th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Political risks: Peruvian protests & Chile’s constitution The mass protests this week in Peru, triggered by rising inflation, are likely to lead to a further shift towards looser fiscal policy and a larger political risk premium on local financial assets... 8th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Mar.) The rise in Mexico’s headline and core inflation in March, to 7.45% y/y and 6.8% y/y respectively, has further to run in the near term as food and energy inflation edges higher. Broader price... 7th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: the implications of Amlo’s recall referendum Mexican President López Obrador is likely to remain in power after a recall referendum on his position this Sunday, which may embolden him to double down on his interventionist agenda. While a radical... 5th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Commodities boost Lat Am markets, economies less so High commodity prices caused by the war in Ukraine have driven a rally in Latin American currencies and equities this month, and are causing exports to surge. Weekly trade figures from Brazil and... 31st March 2022 · 16 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: Catch-22 for IMF deal 22 One issue the IMF seems to be glossing over in its latest deal with Argentina (the 22 nd in the country’s history) is that the currency looks overvalued. But the adjustment needed to improve the... 30th March 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: tightening cycle not yet done and dusted The Monetary Policy Report released by Chile’s central bank today, following on from its 150bp rate increase to 7.00%, suggests that its tightening cycle is winding down to a close. However, we think... 30th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Amlo unnerves, BCB outlook, new FX forecasts Yesterday’s comment by Mexican President López Obrador that Banxico would raise its policy rate by 50bp, four hours before the official decision, is not a big deal in itself. But it adds to the sense... 25th March 2022 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico’s hawkish tilt as Amlo slips up Yesterday’s unanimous vote by Mexico’s central bank to raise the policy rate by 50bp, to 6.50%, came as no surprise since it had already been revealed by President López Obrador (Amlo) earlier in the... 25th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Mar.) While Mexico’s headline inflation stabilised at 7.3% y/y in the first half of March, the further rise in the core rate to 6.6% y/y suggests that the central bank is still struggling to keep a lid on... 24th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update IMF & Argentina: a historical guide to restoring confidence History suggests that for an IMF deal to restore market confidence, a credible shift towards policy tightening which delivers positive economic results, alongside favourable external conditions, is... 23rd March 2022 · 5 mins read
