Skip to main content

Colombia: no more business as usual

The first round of Colombia’s presidential election has set up a close race between left-wing Gustavo Petro and populist Rodolfo Hernández in the second round vote on 19th June. The vote was a major repudiation of the pro-business governments that have governed Colombia for the past two decades. Investors seem to have welcomed the result. Hernández is seen as having the best chance of defeating Petro and avoiding a shift to the left. But we think that any optimism is likely to be short lived. Neither Hernández nor Petro are likely to tighten fiscal policy to reduce public debt risks, while both advocate higher trade barriers which bodes poorly for Colombia’s growth prospects. If anything, we suspect that Hernández presents a greater risk on these fronts than Petro.

Become a client to read more

This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.

Already have an account?

You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.

Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it

Register for free

Sign up for a free account to gain:

  • Unlock additional content
  • Register for Capital Economics events
  • Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
  • Request a free trial of our services

Get access