Despite a stringent lockdown that has lasted nearly two months, new recorded cases of COVID-19 in India remain on a sharp upward trajectory and hit a record high yesterday. The true number of cases is likely to be higher still given limited testing capacity. With no obvious alternative, it augurs for restrictions remaining in place for longer and some form of lockdown is likely beyond the new end-date of 31st May. That will continue to take a big economic toll. But policymakers will tread very carefully when it comes to lifting restrictions. After all, the costs to public health from failing to contain the virus would be enormous, with the local medical system likely to be quickly overrun. And the economic costs would also be even more severe and long-lasting than what we currently expect.
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