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Gas supply to Europe to remain uncertain

News of force majeure on one of the pipelines in Ukraine bringing Russian natural gas to Europe just adds to our conviction that Europe is going to struggle to meet its gas needs over the next year. The heightened competition for gas imports suggests that prices will remain high at least until spring 2023. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Energy Update to clients of our Emerging Europe Service. Markets Drop-In (11th May, 10:00 EDT/15:00 BST): We’re discussing our Q2 Outlook reports and what they say about the potential performance of bonds, equities and FX rates as inflation peaks in a special 20-minute briefing on Wednesday. Register now.
Caroline Bain Chief Commodities Economist
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Energy Data Response

US Weekly Petroleum Status Report

The rise in US crude stocks was in large part down to a drop in exports. More interesting was the jump in implied gasoline consumption, which probably reflects the recent fall in prices. This may not be sustainable if, as we think likely, Russia-related risks lead to higher crude prices later in the year.

10 August 2022

Energy Update

We’re less upbeat about OPEC oil supply

Concerns about the demand outlook have dragged the Brent crude oil price towards $90 per barrel this week. But, the supply-side concerns which pushed the price over $120 per barrel not too long ago haven’t entirely vanished. Indeed, following the OPEC+ meeting this week, we are now less upbeat on supply. Oil and the Gulf Drop-In (9th Aug): What’s the outlook for oil prices and what does that mean for Gulf economic outperformance? Join economists from our Commodities and Emerging Markets teams for this 20-minute briefing. Register now.

5 August 2022

Energy Data Response

US Weekly Petroleum Status Report

Crude oil prices have been for a rollercoaster ride today, rising by $3 per barrel following the OPEC+ meeting, and then more than erasing those gains later on. Prices fell particularly sharply after US stocks data came out, which showed a rise in commercial stocks. But, we think investors might have missed the bigger picture, which is that stocks including government reserves fell for the 24th time this year.

3 August 2022

More from Caroline Bain

Commodities Update

Some bright spots in China’s commodities trade data

Energy commodity imports held up relatively well in April given the widespread COVID-19 restrictions. But the trade data throw up some question marks about demand for industrial metals given the downturn in export volumes and somewhat lower metals imports.

9 May 2022

Commodities Update

PMI readings bode ill for commodities demand

The global manufacturing PMI fell back in April. Admittedly, it was a sharp drop in China’s PMI that weighed on the global aggregate, but there are warning signs in the PMIs of most of the major advanced and emerging economies. While supply constraints may keep commodity prices elevated for some time yet, we think subdued demand will weigh on most prices later this year and in 2023.

3 May 2022

OPEC Watch

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Apr.)

OPEC oil production rose a little in March, but the group continues to underproduce. What’s more, its optimistic non-OPEC supply forecasts suggest that it has no intention of boosting output in the near term.

12 April 2022
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