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EU oil embargo to hit Russia’s oil exports hard

The EU proposal to end imports of Russian crude oil and petroleum products by the end of the year has long been in the works. If approved, we expect Russia’s oil exports to fall by around 20% this year, which in turn would keep oil prices over $100 per barrel. But unless natural gas prices plunge and/or there are secondary sanctions on Russian oil, this won’t cause major pain for Russia’s economy immediately. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Energy Update to clients of our Emerging Europe Service.
Edward Gardner Commodities Economist
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Commercial crude oil stocks fell last week on the back of a rise in exports and a decrease in imports. Going forward, though, the US government’s plan to further draw down its strategic oil reserves, in addition to improving production, should lead to a recovery in commercial stocks in the coming months. French election Drop-In (21st April, 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT): Join our Europe and Markets economists the morning after the crucial Macron vs Le Pen debate for a briefing about risks around the presidential election, including to the French economy, the European Union and the euro. Register now.

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Energy Data Response

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