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EU oil embargo to hit Russia’s oil exports hard

The EU proposal to end imports of Russian crude oil and petroleum products by the end of the year has long been in the works. If approved, we expect Russia’s oil exports to fall by around 20% this year, which in turn would keep oil prices over $100 per barrel. But unless natural gas prices plunge and/or there are secondary sanctions on Russian oil, this won’t cause major pain for Russia’s economy immediately. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Energy Update to clients of our Emerging Europe Service.
Edward Gardner Commodities Economist
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Energy Data Response

US Weekly Petroleum Status Report

The rise in US crude stocks was in large part down to a drop in exports. More interesting was the jump in implied gasoline consumption, which probably reflects the recent fall in prices. This may not be sustainable if, as we think likely, Russia-related risks lead to higher crude prices later in the year.

10 August 2022

Energy Update

We’re less upbeat about OPEC oil supply

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Energy Data Response

US Weekly Petroleum Status Report

Crude oil prices have been for a rollercoaster ride today, rising by $3 per barrel following the OPEC+ meeting, and then more than erasing those gains later on. Prices fell particularly sharply after US stocks data came out, which showed a rise in commercial stocks. But, we think investors might have missed the bigger picture, which is that stocks including government reserves fell for the 24th time this year.

3 August 2022

More from Edward Gardner

Commodities Update

Russia weaponisation of natural gas poses economic risks

Russia’s decision to suspend gas deliveries to Poland and Bulgaria from today because of a payments dispute will only strengthen the EU’s resolve to end its dependency on Russian gas, keeping gas prices historically high for months to come. The move also raises the risk of gas shortages in Poland and Bulgaria, especially Bulgaria which is relatively less well prepared. Euro-zone stagflation risks have risen, too. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Commodities Update to clients of our Energy, European Economics and Emerging Europe Economics Services .

27 April 2022

Energy Data Response

US Weekly Petroleum Status Report

Commercial crude oil stocks fell last week on the back of a rise in exports and a decrease in imports. Going forward, though, the US government’s plan to further draw down its strategic oil reserves, in addition to improving production, should lead to a recovery in commercial stocks in the coming months. French election Drop-In (21st April, 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT): Join our Europe and Markets economists the morning after the crucial Macron vs Le Pen debate for a briefing about risks around the presidential election, including to the French economy, the European Union and the euro. Register now.

20 April 2022

Energy Data Response

US Weekly Petroleum Status Report

Commercial crude stocks rose last week, beating market expectations of a decline, due to rising domestic production and another sale from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. If sustained, higher production could combine with continued SPR releases to further boost commercial stocks in the weeks ahead.

6 April 2022
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