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A slower recovery in 2022

Growth across much of the emerging world will be weaker this year than last, with Emerging Europe and China in particular likely to fall short of consensus expectations. The EM monetary tightening cycle will continue, with further aggressive interest rate hikes likely in Latin America and Emerging Europe. But soft inflation means that interest rates in much of Asia will stay lower than most anticipate. And China’s central bank will continue to ease monetary policy. With external positions relatively strong, most EMs are in a good position to withstand rising US interest rates.

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