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Thailand’s reopening, exports soften

Thailand’s tourism sector will remain heavily depressed despite this week’s reopening of Phuket to foreign tourists. Meanwhile, the latest data provide more evidence that export demand has started to level off.
We are holding a Drop-In online briefing on Tuesday at 1500 HKT/0800 BST to explain our Korean rate outlook, including the latest on the domestic recovery but also how external demand conditions could influence policy thinking. Register here.
Gareth Leather Senior Asia Economist
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Emerging Asia Economics Weekly

Singapore overheating fears, BSP forecast change

There are growing signs that Singapore’s economy is overheating, with inflation now nearly double the target and wages increasing rapidly. However, we do not expect the MAS to respond by tightening monetary policy further. We expect growth to slow in the second half of the year, which should help to cool underlying price pressures, while a reopening of the international border should help to ease labour shortages. Asia Drop-In (30th June, 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT): Are Asia’s central banks behind the curve? Can the Bank of Japan and People’s Bank of China continue to go against the grain? Find out in our special session on what global monetary tightening looks like in Asia. Register now.  

24 June 2022

Emerging Asia Economics Update

Low inflation means BI is in little hurry to raise rates

Bank Indonesia left interest rates unchanged again today, and the relative weakness of inflation means any tightening cycle is unlikely to be aggressive. We are maintaining our view the central bank will raise interest rates by just 25bps this year. Asia Drop-In (30th June, 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT): Are Asia’s central banks behind the curve? Can the Bank of Japan and People’s Bank of China continue to go against the grain? Find out in our special session on what global monetary tightening looks like in Asia. Register now.  

23 June 2022

Emerging Asia Economics Update

New rate forecasts following hawkish BSP comments

The central bank in the Philippines today raised its policy rate by another 25bp (to 2.5%), and signalled that further tightening was likely. However, with inflation set to peak soon and headwinds to the recovery mounting, we think the tightening cycle will be gradual. Asia Drop-In (30th June, 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT): Are Asia’s central banks behind the curve? Can the Bank of Japan and People’s Bank of China continue to go against the grain? Find out in our special session on what global monetary tightening looks like in Asia. Register now.  

23 June 2022

More from Gareth Leather

Emerging Asia Chart Book

Virus disruption to continue

The virus situation in Emerging Asia has improved compared with a month ago. Although cases are rising sharply in Indonesia, daily numbers have come down in Taiwan, Singapore, India and Malaysia, and appear to have stabilised in the Philippines. That said, the situation remains serious. The more contagious Delta variant now appears prevalent across the region, which suggests countries will need to be cautious about how quickly they loosen restrictions. And while vaccine rollouts have gathered pace in a number of countries, it is only in Singapore, China, Hong Kong and Cambodia where more than 10% of the population is fully vaccinated. The upshot is that whereas life appears to be returning to normal in the US and most of Europe, COVID-19 will continue to cause significant economic disruption throughout this year across large parts of Emerging Asia.

30 June 2021

Emerging Asia Data Response

Vietnam GDP (Q2)

Looking past the jump in y/y growth due to a weak base for comparison, GDP data suggest that Vietnam is facing a heavy economic toll from its efforts to control the virus. With sporadic outbreaks continuing, the economy is likely to suffer further in the months ahead.

29 June 2021

Emerging Asia Economics Update

Thailand: policy rate on hold until at least end-2022

The Bank of Thailand (BoT) today left interest rates unchanged at their all-time low of just 0.5%, dovish comments from the press conference support our view that rates will be on hold for a long time to come.

23 June 2021
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