Thailand’s reopening, exports soften

Thailand’s tourism sector will remain heavily depressed despite this week’s reopening of Phuket to foreign tourists. Meanwhile, the latest data provide more evidence that export demand has started to level off.
We are holding a Drop-In online briefing on Tuesday at 1500 HKT/0800 BST to explain our Korean rate outlook, including the latest on the domestic recovery but also how external demand conditions could influence policy thinking. Register here.
Gareth Leather Senior Asia Economist
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Emerging Asia Economics Weekly

Thai tourism boost, new oil price forecasts

Better times lie head for Thailand’s tourism industry after the government this week announced it would resume its quarantine-free travel scheme from 1st February. A recovery in tourism will not only provide a boost to GDP growth, but will also support the baht, which was one of the worst performing currencies in Asia last year. Drop-In: Our China team will be discussing our expectations for policy, zero-COVID and the economy on Thursday (0800 GMT/1600 HKT) in an online briefing timed to coincide with publication of our next China Economic Outlook report. Please register here to join them and let them know in advance of any questions you’d like them to address.

21 January 2022

Emerging Asia Economics Update

Indonesia: hiking cycle to be gradual

Bank Indonesia left interest rates unchanged at 3.5% at its meeting today, but the decision to raise the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) from March suggests that rate hikes will come sooner than we had previously expected.

20 January 2022

Emerging Asia Economics Update

Markets mispricing the chance of rate hikes in Malaysia

The dovish tone of Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) as it left rates on hold today only strengthens our non-consensus view that policy will be left on hold this year to support the recovery. In contrast, the analyst consensus is for 50bps of tightening, while financial markets are pricing in two to three 25bp hikes. Drop-In: Turkey’s new economic policy = old problems (Thurs 20th Jan, 09:00 ET/14:00 GMT). William Jackson and Jason Tuvey discuss the economic problems associated with the lira’s collapse, including the government’s policy response. Register here.

20 January 2022

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Emerging Asia Chart Book

Virus disruption to continue

The virus situation in Emerging Asia has improved compared with a month ago. Although cases are rising sharply in Indonesia, daily numbers have come down in Taiwan, Singapore, India and Malaysia, and appear to have stabilised in the Philippines. That said, the situation remains serious. The more contagious Delta variant now appears prevalent across the region, which suggests countries will need to be cautious about how quickly they loosen restrictions. And while vaccine rollouts have gathered pace in a number of countries, it is only in Singapore, China, Hong Kong and Cambodia where more than 10% of the population is fully vaccinated. The upshot is that whereas life appears to be returning to normal in the US and most of Europe, COVID-19 will continue to cause significant economic disruption throughout this year across large parts of Emerging Asia.

30 June 2021

Emerging Asia Data Response

Vietnam GDP (Q2)

Looking past the jump in y/y growth due to a weak base for comparison, GDP data suggest that Vietnam is facing a heavy economic toll from its efforts to control the virus. With sporadic outbreaks continuing, the economy is likely to suffer further in the months ahead.

29 June 2021

Emerging Asia Economics Update

Thailand: policy rate on hold until at least end-2022

The Bank of Thailand (BoT) today left interest rates unchanged at their all-time low of just 0.5%, dovish comments from the press conference support our view that rates will be on hold for a long time to come.

23 June 2021
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