Virus disruption to continue

The virus situation in Emerging Asia has improved compared with a month ago. Although cases are rising sharply in Indonesia, daily numbers have come down in Taiwan, Singapore, India and Malaysia, and appear to have stabilised in the Philippines. That said, the situation remains serious. The more contagious Delta variant now appears prevalent across the region, which suggests countries will need to be cautious about how quickly they loosen restrictions. And while vaccine rollouts have gathered pace in a number of countries, it is only in Singapore, China, Hong Kong and Cambodia where more than 10% of the population is fully vaccinated. The upshot is that whereas life appears to be returning to normal in the US and most of Europe, COVID-19 will continue to cause significant economic disruption throughout this year across large parts of Emerging Asia.
Gareth Leather Senior Asia Economist
Continue reading

More from Emerging Asia

Emerging Asia Economics Weekly

Korean labour market not as healthy as it looks

At face value, the Korean labour market figures for December paint an encouraging picture, with total employment rising to a new record high. However, a detailed examination of data reveals just how dependent the labour market has become on government support, which may not be sustained if the opposition PPP win March’s presidential election.

14 January 2022

Emerging Asia Economics Update

Bank of Korea turning even more hawkish

The Bank of Korea (BoK) is far from done, after making its first back-to-back rate hike since 2007 today. We now expect a total of four 25bp hikes in 2022, taking the policy rate to 2.00%.

14 January 2022

Emerging Asia Economics Update

What to expect in Emerging Asia in 2022

Asia will be – contrary to consensus expectations for widespread hikes – the only EM region in which the median central bank isn’t tightening this year.

10 January 2022

More from Gareth Leather

Emerging Asia Economics Weekly

Thailand’s reopening, exports soften

Thailand’s tourism sector will remain heavily depressed despite this week’s reopening of Phuket to foreign tourists. Meanwhile, the latest data provide more evidence that export demand has started to level off.

We are holding a Drop-In online briefing on Tuesday at 1500 HKT/0800 BST to explain our Korean rate outlook, including the latest on the domestic recovery but also how external demand conditions could influence policy thinking. Register here.

2 July 2021

Emerging Asia Data Response

Vietnam GDP (Q2)

Looking past the jump in y/y growth due to a weak base for comparison, GDP data suggest that Vietnam is facing a heavy economic toll from its efforts to control the virus. With sporadic outbreaks continuing, the economy is likely to suffer further in the months ahead.

29 June 2021

Emerging Asia Economics Update

Thailand: policy rate on hold until at least end-2022

The Bank of Thailand (BoT) today left interest rates unchanged at their all-time low of just 0.5%, dovish comments from the press conference support our view that rates will be on hold for a long time to come.

23 June 2021
↑ Back to top