Emerging Asia Economic Outlook Policy easing to begin soon We expect economic growth in most countries in Asia to slow in the second half of 2024, as tighter fiscal policy, high interest rates and weaker global growth all weigh on demand. Inflation is back to... 20th June 2024 · 28 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Weekly Malaysia subsidy cuts, BoK minutes, Pakistan budget Headline inflation in Malaysia has been among the lowest in Asia but that is soon set to change now that the government is pushing ahead with long-planned subsidy cuts aimed at improving the public... 14th June 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Update Pakistan cuts rate, but further easing to be gradual The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) kicked off its easing cycle today with a 150bps rate cut, and while further cuts are likely, ongoing negotiations with the IMF for a new long-term loan deal mean that... 10th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Asia Chart Pack Emerging Asia Chart Pack (May 2024) Headline inflation across most of Emerging Asia is now either below or only slightly above central bank targets. Nevertheless, policymakers have struck a slightly more hawkish tone recently due to... 30th May 2024 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Sovereign bond spreads: from too high to too low? The sharp drop in frontier market sovereign dollar bond spreads this year has caught many by surprise. We think there’s a case that the bond rally may have gone too far in Argentina, Ecuador and... 24th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Weekly Will any other central banks hike interest rates? We are not expecting any other central banks in the region to follow Bank Indonesia and hike interest rates to support their currencies. However, one central bank worth monitoring is the State Bank of... 26th April 2024 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM sovereign default risks still high in a few places The incidence of sovereign debt distress has continued to decline across the emerging world in recent weeks, driven mainly by an improvement in global risk appetite and the corresponding narrowing of... 10th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Asia Economic Outlook Asian central banks waiting for the Fed With inflation easing and domestic demand struggling in much of emerging Asia, central banks are likely to start cutting interest rates soon. The one remaining concern for policymakers is the fear of... 27th March 2024 · 27 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Update Pakistan: election result bad news for the economy Pakistan’s general election has thrown the country’s political scene into turmoil, with no party emerging with a majority from Thursday’s poll. A hung parliament may complicate the country’s upcoming... 9th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Frontier sovereign debt distress still high While the overall incidence of sovereign debt distress in the emerging world has fallen back since last year, sovereign debt distress in frontier markets hasn’t. And, if anything, things have taken a... 7th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Focus Pakistan election: major challenges await next PM The priority for whoever wins Pakistan’s general election on 8 th February will be to agree a new deal with the IMF, which should help put the struggling economy on a more stable footing. But... 1st February 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Weekly Korean consumer weakness, SBP to sound hawkish Korea’s GDP figures published this week show that, although the economy held up relatively well last quarter, the recovery is becoming increasingly lobsided. Exports have been strong, but domestic... 26th January 2024 · 9 mins read
Emerging Asia Economic Outlook Policy easing coming sooner than most expect Economic growth in most of Emerging Asia is likely to slow in the near term as weak global demand and high interest rates weigh on prospects. With growth set to struggle and inflation likely to ease... 7th December 2023 · 32 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Weekly Korea inflation concerns, rates to stay high in Pakistan Headline inflation in Korea rose again last month, but with the core rate dropping back and central bank officials becoming increasingly concerned about the outlook for growth, we expect the BoK to... 3rd November 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Weekly Taiwan’s economy slowing, MAS to ease policy in April The economic landscape in Taiwan is shifting. Domestic demand is now cooling but exports have rebounded. Looking ahead though, renewed weakness in exports appears likely and we expect below trend... 27th October 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Asia Economic Outlook Economic weakness to prompt policy easing in 2024 GDP growth across most of Emerging Asia has struggled over the past year and we expect growth to remain weak in the near term as tight monetary policy at home and subdued activity abroad weigh on... 25th September 2023 · 34 mins read