Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: Inflation to stay low, sharp fiscal tightening in Pakistan Recent data show inflation stayed soft across Asia last month, with Thailand, Sri Lanka, and China all in deflation. While the jump in oil prices following Israel’s attacks on Iran pose an upside risk... 13th June 2025 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: Exports to US surge, dovish BSP Exports from Vietnam and Taiwan to the US have surged in recent months as US buyers have front-loaded orders ahead of the introduction of tariffs. The strength in exports is likely to continue in the... 9th May 2025 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Kashmir: old tensions in a new geopolitical context If limited just to Kashmir, a period of fighting between Pakistani and Indian forces would have a small impact on the economy of either country. Pakistan would have more to lose than India from a... 7th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: A close call in Malaysia Bank Negara Malaysia has so far held off on rate cuts, but with first quarter growth slowing sharply, inflation at a four-year low, and external risks mounting, we expect the central bank to begin its... 2nd May 2025 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Update The economic impact of rising tensions in Kashmir Provided it was limited just to Kashmir, a period of fighting between Pakistani and Indian forces would have a small impact on the overall economy of either country. The closing of the only land trade... 28th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Climate Economics Update Major tests for IMF climate deals in Egypt and Pakistan The IMF’s Resilience and Sustainability Facilities with Egypt and Pakistan will incentivise policymakers to implement climate adaptation and mitigation policies. That said, both countries still need... 14th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Asia Outlook: Rate cuts and trade uncertainty We expect economic growth across the region to remain subdued, with most economies set to record below-trend and below-consensus growth this year. While lower interest rates will provide some support... 25th March 2025 · 28 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: Further easing ahead in Pakistan and Sri Lanka Pakistan’s central bank cut interest rates by 100bps at its scheduled meeting earlier this week. But with the economy recovering, inflation concerns continuing to linger and the central bank sounding... 31st January 2025 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: Dovish BoK minutes, bumper rate cut in Pakistan The Bank of Korea’s minutes from its November meeting confirm that supporting the economy is now its main priority. We are expecting another 100bps of rate cuts next year in Korea. Meanwhile, Pakistan... 20th December 2024 · 7 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Asia Outlook: More rate cuts coming We expect another year of below-trend and below-consensus GDP growth in most of Asia in 2025, as tight fiscal policy and weak exports weigh on output. In China, a slowdown in construction will act as... 13th December 2024 · 28 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Pakistan latest IMF deal, CBSL on hold The loan deal that was confirmed this week between the IMF and Pakistan envisages a further sharp tightening of fiscal policy. This drag from fiscal policy is the main reason why we think GDP growth... 27th September 2024 · 7 mins read
Climate Economics Update Notes from LSE Environment Week Ahead of COP29 in November, discussions have been taking place at events in London and New York this week on all things climate. We attended the LSE’s Environment Week to hear the thoughts of... 26th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Policy easing to gather pace We are expecting another year of below-trend economic growth in 2025 across Asia, as subdued exports, worsening labour markets and tighter fiscal policy weigh on demand. Inflation is back to target... 23rd September 2024 · 28 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Fed easing, SBP rate cut, BoK’s dovish minutes Bank Indonesia tends to place a lot of weight on US Federal Reserve decisions because of its mandate to ensure currency stability. We think a cut by the Fed on Wednesday will give the green light for... 13th September 2024 · 8 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Further easing on the cards The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) lowered its policy rate by 100bps today, and further easing is likely later in the year. Today’s cut marks the second consecutive meeting where the central bank has... 29th July 2024 · 2 mins read
