Asia Chart Pack Omicron recedes, but other headwinds emerge Successful vaccination campaigns allowed governments to keep economies open during the recent Omicron waves, and our Mobility Trackers suggest that activity held up much better than we had originally... 29th March 2022 · 15 mins read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan: central bank to resume tightening cycle soon The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) today left interest rates on hold, but the surge in oil prices mean it is likely to resume its tightening cycle soon. Drop-In (8 March, 10:00 EST/15:00 GMT): We’re... 8th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Chart Pack How will central banks respond to rising oil prices? The recent jump in oil prices poses a significant upside risk to our inflation and interest rate forecasts for this year. Central banks would normally “look through” a one-off jump in the price level... 28th February 2022 · 14 mins read
Asia Economics Update Inflation a worry in South Asia, but less so elsewhere Inflation is a growing concern for policymakers in South Asia and means interest rates are likely to rise further this year. Elsewhere in Asia, inflation remains low and is likely to fall back over... 8th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Central banks in no hurry to tighten Omicron should prove no more than a small stumbling block for Asia. Our forecasts are for above-trend and above-consensus growth in most countries this year. India, Indonesia and Korea are likely to... 25th January 2022 · 34 mins read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan: a pause to the tightening cycle The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) left interest rates on hold today at 9.75% and indicated that further modest tightening is likely later in the year. We think the central bank will take a breather... 24th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Thai tourism boost, new oil price forecasts Better times lie head for Thailand’s tourism industry after the government this week announced it would resume its quarantine-free travel scheme from 1 st February. A recovery in tourism will not only... 21st January 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Omicron sweeps across the emerging world The Omicron variant of COVID-19 is causing new virus cases to surge in the emerging world. Many EMs are reporting record daily cases or that new infections are rising sharply. South Africa’s... 14th January 2022 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan: confusing signals from the central bank The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) today raised interest rates by a further 100bp, which came as little surprise. What was unexpected, however, was the sudden shift in tone in the statement. Despite the... 14th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Taiwan in no rush to raise interest rates The central bank of Taiwan is likely to leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting next Thursday (both the consensus and ourselves expect no change). Despite the economy operating well-above its... 10th December 2021 · 7 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Omicron fears stall plans to reopen borders Amid all the uncertainty caused by the arrival of Omicron, one thing we can say with some conviction is that the new variant is further bad news for the region’s beleaguered tourism industry. Up until... 29th November 2021 · 15 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Recent rate hikes not the start of a trend Attention over the past week has been on the region’s more hawkish central banks, following rate hikes in Korea and Pakistan. Both countries, along with Sri Lanka (which unexpectedly left rates... 26th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Why is inflation different in Asia? Inflation hasn’t emerged as a concern across Emerging Asia in the same way it has in the rest of the emerging world, in part because food price inflation in Asia is much lower, but also because the... 22nd November 2021 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan: further rate hikes coming Pakistan’s central bank (SBP) today raised interest rates by an aggressive 150bp and with inflation set to remain above target and the currency likely to come under further downward pressure, further... 19th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Chart Pack South East Asia bouncing back The near-term outlook for South East Asia has improved dramatically over the past month or so. Daily cases of COVID-19 have collapsed and are now less than one-third of the level they were at in... 27th October 2021 · 15 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly GDP to rebound after gloomy Q3 The next few weeks will see the publication of a host of third quarter GDP figures from across the region. While the data are likely to paint a downbeat picture, output should rebound strongly in the... 22nd October 2021 · 6 mins read
