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China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Apr.)

Lending was much weaker than expected last month as lockdowns weighed on credit demand. This should nudge the PBOC to announce further easing measures soon. But the central bank continues to signal a relatively restrained approach.
Julian Evans-Pritchard Senior China Economist
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China Data Response

China Activity & Spending (Jul.)

The July data suggest that the post-lockdown recovery lost steam as the one-off boost from reopening fizzled out and mortgage boycotts triggered a renewed deterioration in the property sector. We think the outlook will remain challenging in the coming months as exports turn from tailwind to headwind, the property downturn deepens, and virus disruptions remain a recurring drag. Asia Drop-In (25th Aug.): What’s the economic impact of a weak yen? What does the latest China-Taiwan flare-up mean for decoupling? How ugly are conditions in China’s real estate sector? Join economists from across our Asia services for this regular briefing on the region’s big investment stories. Register now.

15 August 2022

China Economics Update

Surprise rate cut amid economic woes

The People’s Bank (PBOC) has cut its policy rates in response to a loss of economic momentum. A cut to the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) later this month is now a given and we expect additional easing measures further ahead, though it’s far from clear that this will be sufficient to drive a revival in credit growth.

15 August 2022

China Economics Weekly

PBOC turns less dovish on inflation

The PBOC’s latest monetary policy report struck a less dovish tone, warning that inflationary pressure may increase in the near-term. We think these concerns are overdone and that inflation is more likely to drop back over the rest of the year. But for now at least, the PBOC appears to see inflation risks as yet another reason to maintain its restrained approach to stimulus.

12 August 2022

More from Julian Evans-Pritchard

China Economics Update

No good options

Officials are struggling to balance a raft of conflicting goals spanning everything from GDP growth, zero-COVID, exchange rate stability, deleveraging and regulation. We don’t expect much compromise on zero-COVID. In other respects, we expect a fudge: a temporary tempering of regulatory and credit concerns, and enough stimulus to prevent a deep slump. Our forecast for growth this year is 2%. If COVID can’t be controlled, even that isn’t guaranteed.

12 May 2022

China Data Response

China Consumer & Producer Prices (Apr.)

Consumer prices rose at a faster pace last month. But inflation remains relatively subdued and there are already signs in the producer price data of upstream price pressures easing. As such, inflation is unlikely to be a constraint on policy action by the PBOC.

11 May 2022

China Data Response

China Trade (Apr.)

Goods trade softened further last month. Virus disruptions continued to take a toll but the main headwind to exports is weakening foreign demand.

9 May 2022
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