My subscription
...
Filters
My Subscription All Publications

We think the Turkish lira’s stability will prove short-lived

For the first time in several months, the lira remained subdued following an interest rate announcement from Turkey’s central bank, perhaps as the decision to keep rates on hold was widely anticipated. We expect further reductions of the one-week repo rate later this year, which leads us to think that the lira will weaken against the US dollar in 2022.
Joseph Marlow Assistant Economist
Continue reading

More from Capital Daily

Capital Daily

The relationship between the US dollar and the stock market

We anticipate a renewed rally in the US dollar and further declines in US equity prices over the next twelve months or so.

24 May 2022

Capital Daily

We think the peak in Treasury yields is still to come

We doubt that the 10-year Treasury yield has peaked in this cycle. Admittedly, it has fallen back markedly on net over the past couple of weeks; having briefly climbed above 3.20% earlier this month, it is now at around ~2.85%. But, it has risen ~5bp so far today and we suspect that it will climb a lot more over the next 12 months or so.

23 May 2022

Capital Daily

We doubt consumer staples will continue to underperform “tech”

We doubt the consumer staples sector, which has been hit particularly hard in the recent sell-off in the S&P 500, will continue to underperform “tech”-heavy sectors. ECB Drop-In (24th May 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Could the ECB deliver a hawkish surprise? Join economists from our Europe and Markets teams for a discussion about what to expect from the Bank’s tightening cycle, including the chances for a bumper hike in July or even an early move at next month’s meeting. Register now.

20 May 2022

More from Joseph Marlow

FX Markets Weekly Wrap

We do not expect the recent dollar weakness to last

Despite several events in the US this week which would usually point to a stronger dollar – the highest US inflation print since the early 1980s, hawkish comments from both Chair Powell and Vice Chair Brainard, and a sharp rise in short-dated government bond yields relative to those in most other countries – the greenback fell this week. We think there are several possible explanations, including rising commodity prices, rotation out of the US tech sector, stretched long dollar positioning, and the fact that US money markets have already priced in a fairly aggressive rate path.

14 January 2022

FX Markets Update

The outlook for high-beta DM currencies in 2022

We think that rate differentials and commodity prices will be the key factors driving the relative performance of six “high-beta” DM currencies in 2022, continuing last year’s trend. We expect all these currencies to lose ground against the US dollar this year, although we think that a more hawkish Riksbank and Bank of England will mean that SEK and GBP hold up best, while our forecast of falling energy prices, especially that of European natural gas, suggests to us that NOK will do worst. Drop-In: Neil Shearing will host an online panel of our senior economists to answer your questions and update on macro and markets this Thursday, 13th January (11:00 ET/16:00 GMT). Register for the latest on everything from Omicron to the Fed to our key calls for 2022. Registration here.

13 January 2022

Capital Daily

We expect higher US yields to lead to more weakness in the yen

The Japanese yen fell to a 5-year low against the US dollar earlier this week, following a sharp rise in US Treasury yields. While the yen has rebounded slightly since then, we think that further rises in Treasury yields over the next couple of years will continue to weigh on the currency.

5 January 2022
↑ Back to top