Joseph Marlow

Joseph Marlow is an Assistant Economist who joined the Capital Economics graduate training scheme in September 2021. He previously spent a year as a Credit Risk Analyst at Lloyds Banking Group as part of his undergraduate degree, and has also completed an internship at the Office for National Statistics. Joseph holds degrees in Economics from the University of Surrey and the University of St Andrews.

Emerging Europe Economics Focus

Rebuilding Ukraine: how much, who pays, what’s next?

The war in Ukraine is dragging on, but there is now growing attention on the country’s eventual reconstruction. We think the government’s target of $750bn of total funding is unlikely to be met ($300...

19th August 2022 23 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Rate hikes nearing an end, CBR’s reform ambitions

The Czech central bank’s decision to keep its policy rate on hold this week, while Romania’s hiked rates, is representative of a growing divergence between central banks in the region. We think Poland...

5th August 2022 8 mins read

Emerging Europe Data Response

Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.)

Manufacturing PMIs for July fell to levels consistent with contractions in industrial production in Q3, with the exception of in Russia, where the downturn in manufacturing seems to have stabilised...

1st August 2022 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Data Response

Czech GDP (Q2 2022)

The 0.2% q/q expansion of Czech GDP in Q2 beat the consensus expectation for a small contraction, but it was roughly in line with what we had expected, and still marked a sharp slowdown in growth from...

29th July 2022 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Growth outlook darkens

The economic outlook has deteriorated across the region. Inflation is soaring and monetary conditions are tightening, which is weighing on households’ real incomes and spending power. The latest...

28th July 2022 11 mins read

Emerging Europe Data Response

Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jul.)

The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe showed declines across the region and across sectors in July, supporting our view that economies in the region are in the midst of...

28th July 2022 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Weak leu not a silver bullet for Romania’s CA deficit

Romania’s current account deficit is likely to rise to almost 9% of GDP this year. While a weaker currency would help to reduce this shortfall, structural reforms are needed to boost competitiveness...

21st July 2022 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Economic Outlook

Sharp slowdown in store as storm clouds gather

Economies in Emerging Europe were resilient in the first half of this year, but the outlook has deteriorated markedly as headwinds have strengthened. Inflation is likely to continue rising and we...

20th July 2022 26 mins read

Emerging Europe Data Response

Manufacturing PMIs (Jun.)

Manufacturing PMIs for June showed further weakness across the region with the exception of Russia, which seems to have benefitted from a shift from imports toward domestic production. There were some...

1st July 2022 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

The impact of Ukrainian refugees on CEE so far

Ukrainian refugees have boosted labour forces and consumer spending across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) since the outbreak of the war, but this could prove short-lived if the conflict remains...

30th June 2022 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Tightening cycles still have some way to go

Inflation has continued to beat expectations across Emerging Europe over the past month, reaching rates not seen in decades in most countries. It is now weighing more heavily on consumer confidence...

29th June 2022 13 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

MNB sends a strong message with monster rate hike

Hungary’s central bank (MNB) stepped up the pace of tightening today with a much larger-than-expected 185bp increase in its base rate, to 7.75%, and the hawkish communications underline the view that...

28th June 2022 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Governments collapse, Russia set to default

Governments in Israel and Bulgaria collapsed this week which may delay support to households over the cost of living. The threat to Bulgaria’s economy is probably greater, as political instability...

24th June 2022 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Data Response

Manufacturing PMIs (May)

Manufacturing PMIs for May showed that weaker external demand weighed on export orders in Emerging Europe, and that spillovers from the war in Ukraine hit output. There were some signs of improvement...

1st June 2022 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Resilience so far, but weakness on the horizon

GDP across Central Europe expanded strongly in Q1 and the latest figures for March and April suggest that activity has remained resilient since the war in Ukraine started. Russia’s economy has not...

31st May 2022 14 mins read

Emerging Europe Data Response

Economic Sentiment Indicators (May)

The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe were a mixed bag in May, but there were some encouraging signs that industrial sentiment has started to improve and that price...

30th May 2022 2 mins read