Capital Daily We expect the rebound in the Brazilian real to be short-lived While the real has strengthened against the US dollar following a further 150bp hike from Brazil’s central bank yesterday, we doubt that there will be a sustained rebound. 9th December 2021 · 6 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack Contagion from Turkey’s crisis likely to remain limited Spillovers to other emerging markets from Turkey’s ongoing currency crisis have been limited so far and we think this will remain the case even if Turkey’s financial markets remain under pressure. 24th November 2021 · 8 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack We think US inflation compensation will rise further US 10-year inflation compensation has risen by another 20bp or so over the past month and we think it will increase further as inflation in the US proves more persistent than most expect. This is one... 19th November 2021 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Further rate cuts likely to put more pressure on the lira The Turkish lira has continued to plummet after Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) delivered a further 100bp cut to the one-week repo rate today. We think that continued political pressure will lead to... 18th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Switzerland in the path of the Covid storm Germany and Austria are at the centre of the Covid storm in Europe, and the fact that vaccination coverage in Switzerland is even lower does not bode well. Vaccine take-up varies from about 60-80% in... 16th November 2021 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar rally may have further to run The US dollar has continued to grind higher against major currencies following the release of US inflation data on Wednesday, with the DXY index reaching its strongest level in over a year. Recent... 12th November 2021 · 11 mins read
Capital Daily US inflation compensation revisited US Treasury yields rose sharply following the release of US CPI inflation figures, which showed that inflation reached 6.2% y/y in October, reversing some of their recent falls. But, despite the pick... 10th November 2021 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar rallies & sterling drops on confusing BoE messaging After another week of wild swings in short-term interest rate markets, the US dollar is ending the week stronger against most major currencies. On a trade-weighted basis it is now near its strongest... 5th November 2021 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Update We expect the Brazilian real to remain under pressure We think that the Brazilian real will weaken a bit further against the US dollar over the next year, as fiscal risks and deteriorating terms of trade continue to weigh on the currency. In view of the... 4th November 2021 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Currencies stay mostly calm amid carnage in bond markets Currency markets remained remarkably stable for most of this week, although the US dollar is rallying sharply today on the back of data showing very strong wage growth in the US, even as a major... 29th October 2021 · 9 mins read
Global Markets Outlook We expect long-term yields to rise further While long-dated government bond yields have risen quite a bit in recent months, we suspect that continued inflationary pressure and the prospect of tighter monetary policy means they still have some... 27th October 2021 · 29 mins read
FX Markets Update Most signs point to further trouble for the Turkish lira We expect the Turkish lira to remain among the worst-performing currencies over the next two years, as political pressures, high inflation, and a vulnerable external position continue to weigh on the... 22nd October 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Further rate cuts likely to add to the lira’s woes The lira fell to a new low against the US dollar today as a result of a larger-than-expected cut of 200 bp to the 1-week repo rate by Turkey’s central bank (CBRT). Continued pressure from President... 21st October 2021 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap US dollar falls back as Treasury yields edge down The US dollar seems set to end the week lower against most currencies, as “risky” assets have rallied and US Treasury yields have edged down a bit. This fall back in the dollar and US yields is... 15th October 2021 · 9 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Monetary policy divergences The Norges Bank’s tightening cycle began at the end of last month and we suspect that investors are underestimating the pace of rate hikes to come. By contrast, the Riskbank looks set to leave... 15th October 2021 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update We expect the rally in commodity currencies to be short-lived Although we wouldn’t be surprised if energy prices remained elevated for a while, we still think they will fall back over the next year, weighing on the currencies of net energy exporters. 14th October 2021 · 2 mins read
