Australia & New Zealand
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Plans to double migration sound good in theory

The new NSW premier has received advice that Australia should double the pace of migration in the coming years to make up for lost population growth. That plan would help ease labour shortages, boost tax revenue and lift GDP growth. We already expect Australia to grow by more than the consensus anticipates next year, but if Australia is able to double the pace of migration growth, GDP would be even stronger than we expect.
Ben Udy Australia and New Zealand Economist
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Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Omicron could add to inflationary pressure

If Omicron were able to evade existing vaccines, a renewed period of lockdowns would be required which would force the RBA to step up its bond purchases. Inflation would fall initially as crude oil prices would continue to weaken, but disruptions to transportation networks coupled with continued strength in goods demand would add to the upward pressure on goods prices. However, for now the activity data suggest that the economy is roaring to life after the recent lockdowns and we’re sticking to our above-consensus GDP forecast of 5% for next year.

3 December 2021

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia International Trade (Oct. 2021)

While it’s early days, the October trade figures suggest that net trade will turn into a drag on GDP growth yet again as imports rebound after the end of lockdowns.

2 December 2021

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Nov.)

Housing demand remains very strong, but rising interest rates and lending restrictions should result in a further slowdown in house price growth next year.

1 December 2021

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Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBNZ to continue hiking rates as restrictions ease

The RBNZ’s decision to begin its hiking cycle while Auckland is still in lockdown highlights that the New Zealand economy is on the brink of overheating. And as restrictions ease, we think the Bank will continue hiking rates in the months ahead.

6 October 2021

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia International Trade (Aug. 2021)

The record trade surplus in August came despite the plunge in iron ore prices in August. The upshot is that net trade should provide a boost to GDP growth in Q3 as domestic demand weakens.

5 October 2021

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Sep.)

House prices have continued to surge despite the recent lockdowns. But we expect house price growth to slow next year as affordability constraints bite and macroprudential limits are imposed.

1 October 2021
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