Nigerian politics take centre stage

All eyes are focused on Nigeria’s election on 28th March, which will almost certainly spark a brief period of political violence when (as seems likely) the losing candidate refuses to accept the result. And whoever is elected faces the challenging combination of low oil prices, slowing economic growth, a weak currency, and rising inflation. Against this backdrop, we expect the central bank to hike interest rates later this year. Nigeria is not the only economy in the region that is struggling. The currencies of South Africa, Angola, and Zambia have all depreciated against the dollar this month in the face of lower commodity prices and fresh concerns about tighter monetary policy in the US. All told, we remain of the view that growth in the region as a whole will slow to its weakest pace this century in 2015.