Latin America Economics Update Milei’s shock therapy hits congressional reality Argentine President Javier Milei’s ambitious economic reform plans have quickly run into political obstacles. There’s still plenty of fiscal tightening that Milei is likely to undertake and there have... 15th February 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Dec. & Q4 2023) The news that the UK slipped into technical recession in 2023, will be a blow for the Prime Minister on a day when he faces the prospect of losing two by-elections. But this recession is as mild as... 15th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update West Africa: cocoa prices to offset hit from poor harvest The effects of El Niño will cause cocoa harvests in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, which account for more than half of global output, to fall by around 20% this year. But the related surge in cocoa prices... 14th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa ended 2023 on a weak note South Africa’s latest hard activity data show that the economy finished last year with a whimper, but we think that easing electricity outages, weaker inflation pressures and less restrictive fiscal... 14th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will continue to watch, worry, and wait With activity and inflation both softer than it had expected a few months ago, the RBNZ will likely stay put at its meeting at the end of the month. However, with a still-tight labour market fuelling... 14th February 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (2nd est.) & Employment (Q4 2023) Data released this morning confirm that the euro-zone economy stagnated in Q4 and we expect this to continue in the first half of the year. 14th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q4 2023) Q4 GDP figures out of Central and Eastern Europe showed that the region ended last year on a weak note, but the outlook for 2024 looks brighter. While soft external demand is likely to remain a drag... 14th February 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Focus What does the election mean for the UK economy? The next general election won’t be as pivotal for the economy or the markets as the elections in 2017 and 2019. Moreover, whoever wins will be constrained by interest rates having risen relative to... 13th February 2024 · 31 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SONA, Kenya buyback, Zambian copper South African President Ramaphosa’s State of the Nation address this week pointed to costly welfare and healthcare expansions ahead of this year’s election. This would make the job of stabilising the... 9th February 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Bad news coming, but better times ahead We’d recommend ignoring any reports on the back of next week’s data releases that the UK economy is heading in the wrong direction on inflation and activity. It may only be a few months before... 9th February 2024 · 11 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB policymakers view patience as a virtue ECB policymakers have continued to push back against the prospect of rate cuts this spring. But they won't feel bound by that guidance if their assessment of the inflation outlook changes. So we still... 9th February 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus CEE: rapid labour cost growth eroding competitiveness The surge in labour costs across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in recent years has led to a sharp loss of competitiveness and raised concern about the impact on the region. We remain relatively... 9th February 2024 · 19 mins read
