Emerging Europe Economics Update First thoughts on the Israel-Gaza conflict The attack by Hamas on Israel on Saturday has led to widespread casualties and deaths, and the declaration of war by Israel’s prime minister. From an economic perspective, the experience from the 2014... 9th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (August) The further drop in German industrial production in August was better than it looked as it was driven by volatile components. However, it still left manufacturing output very subdued, and we expect... 9th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. With the economy growing at an above-trend pace, the labour market should soon start to tighten... 9th October 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Recent data suggest that the euro-zone economy contracted in Q3 and we expect it to shrink further... 6th October 2023 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Bond market sell-off already hurting the economy The rapid rise in the 30-year gilt yield has lifted it to a 20-year high but, while striking, so far the speed of the increase is slower than in the run-up to the liability-driven investment crisis... 6th October 2023 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly MAS on hold, inflation concerns in the Philippines. The Monetary Authority of Singapore is likely to leave its policy settings unchanged at its meeting on Friday, but with the economy struggling and inflationary pressures falling back, we are expecting... 6th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt election and UAE swap line, OPEC+, Saudi labour Egypt’s upcoming election in December has led to policy paralysis, particularly around the exchange rate. The currency swap line opened with the UAE this week appears aimed at bolstering resources to... 5th October 2023 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: weak activity data but inflation worries mount The latest activity data from Korea were downbeat. Although industrial production grew strongly, the manufacturing PMIs, along with the export figures and retail sales data, all point to continued... 5th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia International Trade & ABS Monthly Household Spending Indicator (Aug. 23) 5th October 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Slowing momentum in activity, the recent decline in employment, and the sharp falls in core CPI and services inflation in August are clear signs that higher interest rates are weighing more heavily on... 4th October 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Investment downturn to push euro-zone into recession The resilience of investment in the euro-zone to higher interest rates and slowing economic growth at the start of the year appears to have been driven in part by the gradual clearing of backlogs in... 4th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Aug.) & Final PMIs (Sep.) The drop in retail sales in August and weakness in the final PMIs for September are consistent with our view that the euro-zone economy will fall into recession in the second half of 2023. 4th October 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Surveys signal a slide in the economy While some measures of optimism have been improving, the majority of the survey evidence suggests the economy is weakening and the chances of the mild recession we have been forecasting have increased... 4th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ’s next move will be down With its assessment of the balance of risks broadly unchanged, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left rates on hold at its meeting today. Although the Bank will likely retain its tightening bias, we... 4th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil: rate cuts won’t prevent a sharp slowdown Brazil’s monetary easing cycle will probably lead to higher spending in interest rate sensitive areas such as furniture and appliances, autos and construction materials. But that won’t be enough to... 3rd October 2023 · 14 mins read
