US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) In response to Donald Trump’s election win and the likelihood that his policies will be inflationary, we have revised up our forecast for the terminal fed funds target range in 2025 by 50bp, to... 18th November 2024 · 1 min read
Asia Rapid Response Thailand GDP (Q3 2024) Economic growth in Thailand accelerated in Q3 and we think the boost from loose fiscal policy will support growth in the coming quarters and help offset a slowdown in the tourism sector. 18th November 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Inflation surprise not enough to prevent December cut While the hotter-than-expected October price data serve as a reminder that the Fed’s fight against inflation is not over, we don't think this is enough to prevent a December rate cut. This could... 15th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE struggling, Turkish lira an unlikely outperformer The Q3 GDP data released out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) this week has only added to worries about the health of the region’s economies, but with inflation still a concern – and in some cases... 15th November 2024 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Should we be worried by stagnating GDP? Today’s GDP release, which confirmed that the economy has hardly grown at all since March, is a blow for the government given its pledge to secure the “highest sustained growth in the G7”. We still... 15th November 2024 · 8 mins read
US Rapid Response Industrial Production (Oct. 2024) The fall in manufacturing output in October was driven mainly by temporary disruptions which should soon reverse. Excluding these disruptions, industrial production would have remained unchanged... 15th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Sep. 2024) Despite the 0.4% m/m decline in manufacturing sales volumes in September, the data still appear consistent with the flash estimate that GDP rose by 0.3% that month. Although manufacturing has been... 15th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe and geopolitics, Germany’s debt brake Ten days after the US presidential election we outline the key implications for Europe, ranging from higher tariffs and defence spending to a faster “decoupling” from China. Meanwhile, Friedrich Merz... 15th November 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Impact of 10% US tariff on euro-zone would be small We think that the impact of Trump’s proposed 10% universal tariff on euro-zone GDP would be very small, in part because we expect the effect to be offset by a weaker euro. So we aren’t pushing down... 15th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss Flash GDP (Q3 2024) Economic growth was surprisingly slow in the third quarter as sporting event-adjusted GDP increased by just 0.2% q/q, a sharp slowdown from the 0.5% recorded in Q2. This will further encourage the SNB... 15th November 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Stimulus next steps, lower growth forecast Hopes for fiscal stimulus have so far amounted to very little. Wider efforts to support growth are still ongoing and we should find out more about the leadership’s priorities early next month. But a... 15th November 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Sep. & Q3 2024) The 0.1% m/m contraction in GDP in September meant that the economy still grew by 0.1% q/q in Q3 (consensus and CE forecasts 0.2% q/q), but at a snail’s pace. However, this doesn’t mean the UK is on... 15th November 2024 · 5 mins read
China Rapid Response China Activity & Spending (Oct. 2024) China’s economy improved further at the start of Q4, thanks to stronger-than-expected consumer spending. We think faster fiscal spending will support a continued cyclical pickup in activity overing... 15th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Markets starting to anticipate December rate hike The financial markets have finally come around to our long-held view that the Bank of Japan will hike rates once more before year-end. With domestic economic data mixed, that probably reflects the... 15th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan GDP (Q3 24 Preliminary) The economy lost momentum in the third quarter and we think that GDP growth will remain around trend over the coming quarters 15th November 2024 · 2 mins read
