Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia’s recession deepens Oil output cuts fuelled Saudi Arabia’s economic downturn in the first half of 2023 and the drag from the oil sector appears to have intensified more recently. Taking together with signs that activity... 14th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update How many global risks lie in China's Country Garden The immediate global economic and market fallout from troubles at Chinese property developer Country Garden seems likely to be limited. Foreign exposure to China’s property sector has fallen sharply... 14th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Our Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Although central banks in both Australia and New Zealand are unlikely to drop... 14th August 2023 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia GDP (Q2 2023) The better than expected pick-up in Russia’s GDP growth in Q2, to 4.9% y/y, confirms that the economy had a strong first half of the year. But with limited slack in the economy, this is likely to... 11th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Data still consistent with soft(ish) landing Although export volumes fell for the second month running in June, the strength of imports suggests that domestic demand is holding up and the Bank of Canada will be pleased to see that import prices... 11th August 2023 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Export pullback understated, foreign travel to pick up The export data published by China’s customs bureau appear to have become less reliable recently and subject to unusually large revisions. Alternative indicators suggest that the true level of exports... 11th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Italy’s windfall tax, France’s cruise ship The kerfuffle over the Italian government’s planned windfall bank tax is not likely to have any lasting impact on the economy, not least because PM Giorgia Meloni moved swiftly to limit the damage... 11th August 2023 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea labour market weakness, Singapore Q2 GDP The slowing labour market in Korea adds to the evidence that the economy is struggling, and supports our view that the central bank will cut interest rates before the end of the year. Meanwhile... 11th August 2023 · 8 mins read
China Economics Update Deflation likely temporary but slowdown isn’t Consumer price inflation slipped into negative territory in July. But this probably won’t last more than a quarter or two and has less to do with the health of domestic demand than many think... 11th August 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Jun./Q2 2023) The 0.5% m/m rise in real GDP in June and 0.2% q/q increase in Q2 (CE, BoE, consensus 0.1% q/q) confirmed that a recession has so far been avoided. But with much of the drag from higher interest rates... 11th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Recession now looking unlikely Wage growth has been strong in recent months which will make it easier for households to cope with high inflation. What’s more, the outlook for external demand has brightened as we no longer expect... 11th August 2023 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian households pinch pennies New data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics revealed that real household spending well and truly fell of a cliff in Q2. Moreover, with consumer sentiment in the doldrums, private consumption is... 11th August 2023 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update How much is fiscal policy supporting activity? With lingering pandemic and energy support measures coming to a close and governments returning one eye to previous fiscal targets, fiscal policy will tighten a little in advanced economies over the... 10th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Philippines GDP (Q2) The economy contracted in Q2 and we expect continued weakness in the near-term as elevated interest rates and weak global demand weigh on economic output in the Philippines. 10th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Kwanza slump adds to clouds over Angola’s outlook Angola’s recent 40% devaluation of the kwanza will add to inflation pressures and prompt the central bank to tighten monetary policy aggressively, all of which will weigh on near-term growth. The... 10th August 2023 · 5 mins read
