Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly A tale of two central banks Inflation is moderating rapidly in Australia, despite elevated shelter costs. Moreover, there's little evidence to suggest that a tight housing market is supporting domestic demand through housing... 2nd February 2024 · 6 mins read
Event Asia Drop-In: After Jokowi – Indonesia’s election and its long-term economic outlook 13th February 2024, 8:00AM GMT Indonesians go to the polls on 14th February to elect a successor to Joko Widodo, the president popularly known as Jokowi, who pushed through some key reforms to secure the country’s
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing isn't out of the woods While the emerging market manufacturing PMIs for January generally edged up, we think that weak global demand will weigh on EM industry over the coming months. The good new is that price pressures... 1st February 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Euro-zone set for years of austerity-lite After years of fiscal largesse, austerity is back. We suspect that budget cuts will reduce euro-zone GDP growth by only around 0.1 or 0.2 percentage points per year over the next five years. But the... 1st February 2024 · 15 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Aramco’s plans, Jordan and regional conflict, Tunisia’s crisis Saudi Arabia’s government this week directed the state oil giant Aramco to suspend plans to raise oil production capacity, but this won’t necessarily stop Aramco from ramping up actual output in the... 1st February 2024 · 8 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jan.) The solid rebound in the ISM manufacturing index to 49.1 in January, from 47.1, indicates that the downturn in the sector is fading and appears to justify the Fed’s view that it can wait a little... 1st February 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Pakistan election: major challenges await next PM The priority for whoever wins Pakistan’s general election on 8 th February will be to agree a new deal with the IMF, which should help put the struggling economy on a more stable footing. But... 1st February 2024 · 8 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI recorded a sharp drop in January as logistics problems and weak demand weighed on activity. We still expect growth to pick up over the course of this year, but this... 1st February 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) The manufacturing PMIs out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) for January remained soft and haven’t changed the broad picture that the region’s industrial sectors continue to struggle. Turkey’s PMI... 1st February 2024 · 2 mins read
India Rapid Response Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) The final manufacturing PMI reading for January suggests that activity got off to a strong start this year. Looking ahead, while manufacturing output is likely to moderate in the coming months, it... 1st February 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs & Korea Trade (Jan.) The PMI data for Emerging Asia offered some encouraging signs but remained quite weak overall for most economies. While parts of the region are likely to see an improvement in activity, we expect... 1st February 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) High interest rates are still feeding through and we expect both GDP and employment to be flat over the next two quarters. As excess supply builds, a fall in inflation to the 2% target will leave... 31st January 2024 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is set to strengthen over 2024-25 as the external backdrop turns more favourable and, in some places, the drag from high inflation eases. But this boost will be... 31st January 2024 · 0 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) China’s economy has regained some strength recently. We expect this to continue over the coming months, on the back of support from fiscal policy and a further pick-up in household spending. But with... 31st January 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Inflation continued to fall sharply across Central and Eastern Europe at the end of 2023... 31st January 2024 · 1 min read
