Europe Economics Weekly How Europe will try to defuse a Trump trade war Following the US election, our working assumption is that the US imposes a 10% universal tariff next year which subtracts around 0.2% from euro-zone GDP – somewhat less than many estimate. But the EU... 8th November 2024 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Our new forecasts after the Budget and the US election We’ve revised up our forecasts for UK GDP growth, inflation and interest rates in response to the policies in the Budget. We have not changed our UK forecasts based on the results of the US election... 8th November 2024 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Winners and losers in Asia from a Trump presidency We have taken out the two 25bps cuts that we had pencilled in for Bank Indonesia’s last two meetings of the year. But for most places in Asia, a Trump presidency shouldn’t have a huge impact on... 8th November 2024 · 6 mins read
China Rapid Response China's fiscal announcement falls short of stimulus Today’s fiscal announcement is another disappointment for those expecting substantial stimulus. 8th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Weak yen strengthens case for year-end rate hike The policies proposed by Donald Trump may well end up providing a small net boost to Japan’s economy. While higher tariffs will result in a small fall in export volumes, it now seems likely that the... 8th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia will be fairly insulated from Trump 2.0 The RBA left rates unchanged on Tuesday, while maintaining a broadly neutral stance. However, the Bank’s meeting was quickly overshadowed by the US election and the prospect of a second Trump... 8th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico’s Trump challenge Mexico is one of the most vulnerable economies to the policies that US President-elect Trump flagged on the campaign trail. This Update looks at the channels through which it could be affected. One... 7th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Trump and MENA: tariffs, dollar pegs, oil, and geopolitics The Middle East and North Africa, for the most part, will be little affected by any direct effects of US President-elect Donald Trump’s proposals to raise tariffs. But, for those with dollar pegs... 7th November 2024 · 8 mins read
China Economics Update Trump, tariffs, tech controls, Taiwan & China Large US tariffs would hurt China’s export sector but less than many suppose. We estimate that the direct impact of even a 60% US tariff on goods from China would be well under 1% of China’s GDP. The... 7th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Event Drop-In: Trump's second term - Macro and market implications 6th November 2024, 1:00PM GMT Our senior economist team were online the day after the election to help clients understand the economic and market implications of what we know so far - and what's still to b
US Rapid Response ISM Services Index (Oct.) The further rise in the ISM services index to a two-year high in October suggests the services sector is continuing to soar, contrasting with the recent weakness in manufacturing. The strong rebound... 5th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) Earlier interest rate cuts are yet to have much effect on the Canadian economy, which remains trapped in a period of below-potential growth. Making matters worse, any boost to the economy from lower... 5th November 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) The net fiscal loosening of £36bn (1.1% of GDP) in 2029/30 relative to previous plans unveiled by the Chancellor in the Budget means we now expect GDP growth of 1.8% and 1.7% in 2025 and 2026... 5th November 2024 · 1 min read
