Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s re-industrialisation, Banxico, shipping dashboards The Brazilian government’s announcement of a new industrial plan this week points to greater state intervention in the economy that will do little to alleviate the country’s productivity problem... 26th January 2024 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korean consumer weakness, SBP to sound hawkish Korea’s GDP figures published this week show that, although the economy held up relatively well last quarter, the recovery is becoming increasingly lobsided. Exports have been strong, but domestic... 26th January 2024 · 9 mins read
US Economics Weekly Immaculate disinflation almost complete It is hard to say which is more remarkable: that GDP growth accelerated last year following the Fed’s most aggressive tightening campaign in decades, or that core inflation nevertheless fell back to... 26th January 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Misinterpreting the ECB Most commentators and investors have concluded that yesterday’s ECB meeting signalled that an April rate cut is a near certainty. We disagree. While an April rate cut is still our base case, the risks... 26th January 2024 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Update Money supply bottoming out but lending to stay weak Data released this morning suggest that the collapse in the euro-zone’s money supply might be over. But we expect money and lending growth to remain fairly weak. 26th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Tax cut revamp unlikely to prove inflationary Some commentators have raised concerns that the Australian government's changes to forthcoming Stage 3 income tax cuts could add fuel to the inflation fire. However, we remain sceptical, given that... 26th January 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Is Turkey’s policy U-turn the real deal? Turkey’s policy U-turn underway since the election last year has been relatively encouraging so far and policymakers’ commitment to orthodoxy has given us reason for optimism. While the scale of the... 25th January 2024 · 20 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank to cut rates in second half of year The Riksbank is set to leave its key policy rate unchanged next week but we think it will begin to cut rates in the second quarter and reduce them faster than policymakers are forecasting. 25th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB signals summer rate cut The ECB kept interest rates unchanged and stuck to the argument that a first rate cut is most likely in the summer. An earlier move is still possible if the inflation data are weak in the next few... 25th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (January 2024) Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Mexico and Brazil’s economies appear to have struggled towards the end of Q4 – a trend we... 25th January 2024 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response GDP (Q4) Although GDP growth came in hotter than expect in the fourth quarter, underlying inflation continued to slow, with annualised core PCE inflation running at the 2% target in the fourth quarter. The... 25th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Korea GDP (Q4) Economic growth in Korea held up better than expected in Q4 but we expect the economy to grow below trend over the next couple of quarters as export growth softens in near term while tight fiscal and... 24th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil: five questions for 2024 Brazil’s economy and financial markets have provided a positive surprise over the past 12-18 months. This Focus answers five key questions that will determine whether 2024 will be chalked up as a... 24th January 2024 · 15 mins read
