Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA’s next move will be down As had been widely expected, the RBA handed down a 25bp rate hike at its meeting today. With the cash rate now at 4.35%, we believe the Bank’s tightening cycle is over. If we’re right that the... 7th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (October 2023) Final PMIs released today confirmed the preliminary estimates and are consistent with our forecast that euro-zone GDP will contract again in Q4. They also suggest that price pressures are continuing... 6th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Indonesia GDP (Q3 2023) Figures released today suggest that economic growth remained broadly stable last quarter, but we don’t have much faith in the official data. Our own in-house activity tracker shows that the economy is... 6th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Riksbank “bailout” not as bad as it looks The Riksbank’s request for a capital injection from the government is not a good look for an independent central bank. But its QE-related losses will be smaller than those of many other central banks... 3rd November 2023 · 14 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly In recession Employment edged up in October but the broad-based weakness of GDP growth, the depressed business surveys and the rapidly weakening housing market all suggest that the economy is in the early stages... 3rd November 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB rate cuts still a long way off, fiscal rules debate This week’s comments by ECB officials, as well as signs that underlying inflationary pressures in the euro-zone remain strong, support our view that the first ECB rate cut will only come in the second... 3rd November 2023 · 8 mins read
India Economics Weekly Rise in unemployment rate not a big macro concern At face value, a sharp rise in unemployment last month suggests that the Indian economy is rapidly losing momentum. But on closer inspection, the increase was entirely caused by rising joblessness in... 3rd November 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Recession still likely in Australia Timely data suggest that both goods and services consumption gained traction last quarter. Therefore, even with a huge drag on growth from net trade, it increasingly appears that the economy managed... 3rd November 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs show no sign of recovery on the horizon October’s manufacturing PMIs suggest that global industrial activity continued to contract at the beginning of Q4 and forward-looking indicators point to further weakness ahead. 2nd November 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s gas sector, Saudi budget, another MENA World Cup Egyptian officials confirmed this week that imports of gas fell to zero after Israel turned off the taps, which will curtail efforts to restart LNG exports. And with gas being cut to energy-intensive... 2nd November 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Weak EM PMIs suggest demand is waning Most EM manufacturing PMIs for October were weaker than expected, largely driven by sluggish domestic and external demand. This weakness has, at least, resulted in input and output price components... 2nd November 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Weak EM PMIs suggest demand is waning Most EM manufacturing PMIs for October were weaker than expected, largely driven by sluggish domestic and external demand. This weakness has, at least, resulted in input and output price components... 2nd November 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Bleak outlook for consumer spending across DMs Although consumer spending has remained remarkably resilient in the US so far this year, it has weakened in other advanced economies. And as the lagged effects of high interest rates filter through to... 2nd November 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus The economic impact of AI in emerging markets The AI revolution will make EM income convergence – or “catch-up growth” – harder as richer economies are better equipped to deploy the technology on a wide scale. It poses a particular headwind to... 2nd November 2023 · 13 mins read
Canada Economics Update What if all the temporary residents leave? The government today confirmed that it intends to welcome an increasing number of permanent residents in the next couple of years. Even if the number of permanent residents continues to rise, however... 1st November 2023 · 4 mins read
