Global Economics Update China stimulus unlikely to have big spillovers to DMs We may learn more about the size and structure of China’s fiscal package over the next couple of weeks, but based on what we know the impact on advanced economies will probably be small. The bigger... 16th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s lopsided economic recovery South Africa’s economy continued to pick-up in the middle of Q3 but the recovery is taking place at different speeds across sectors; lower inflation is supporting consumer-facing sectors but industry... 16th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Aug. 2024) The 0.8% m/m decline in manufacturing sales volumes in August looks consistent with the flash estimate that GDP was unchanged that month, leaving the economy on track for a weaker third quarter... 16th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel: inflation softens in September but upside risks rising Israel’s economy is under strain from the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon, with supply constraints both holding back growth and causing inflation concerns to build. The softer-than-expected inflation... 15th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Answering your questions on Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 We held an online Drop-In session last week to discuss progress on Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 reform programme and the implications for the Kingdom’s economic outlook. (An on-demand recording is... 15th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Event Drop-In: South Africa Budget – Are the public finances really on the mend? 30th October 2024, 4:00PM GMT South African Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana will be in a cheerful mood when he delivers the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) on 30th October; the budget deficit
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (August 2024) While the 1.8% m/m rise in industrial production in August was the strongest monthly rise in over a year, it is probably not the start of a sustained recovery. We think production is more likely to... 15th October 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update MOF promises more spending but scale still unclear China’s Finance Ministry has pledged to significantly increase government debt, as well as ensure that RMB2.3trn in unused funds (equivalent to 1.6% of GDP) are spent by year-end. The latter should... 12th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s surveys imply GDP growth will remain weak The key activity and labour market indicators in the Bank of Canada’s surveys did not deteriorate last quarter, but they remain consistent with weak GDP growth, rather than the pick-up the Bank is... 11th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenya rate cuts, SA visa reforms Continued disinflation alongside an improved external environment mean that the 75bp interest rate cut delivered by Kenya’s central bank is likely to be followed up by further monetary loosening over... 11th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea cuts, Bank Indonesia on a knife edge The Bank of Korea cut interest rates today and we are expecting the central banks of Thailand and the Philippines to follow suit at their scheduled meetings on Wednesday. The Monetary Authority of... 11th October 2024 · 8 mins read
Event Drop-In: US election preview – Trump vs Harris and macro/markets consequences 23rd October 2024, 9:00AM BST There’s less than a month to go until Election Day and polling suggests this is going to be a nail-biter.
Event Drop-In: US election preview – Trump vs Harris and macro/markets consequences 22nd October 2024, 3:00PM BST There’s just two weeks to go until Election Day and polling suggests this is going to be a nail-biter.
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Aug. 2024) The 0.2% m/m rise in GDP in August (consensus and Capital Economics 0.2%), which came on the back of the economy failing to grow at all in three of the previous four months, lends support to our view... 11th October 2024 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly What to look for at the MoF press conference All eyes are on the Ministry of Finance's crucial press conference tomorrow morning. We think this year’s growth target is just about achievable if local governments can be pushed to fully deploy... 11th October 2024 · 10 mins read
