UK Economics Update How heavily are interest rates weighing on GDP? Splitting real GDP growth into the sectors most and least sensitive to interest rates provides some tentative evidence that higher interest rates are starting to weigh a bit more heavily on real... 18th July 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Chile’s recovery is set to surprise on the upside The large macroeconomic imbalances that built up during Chile’s post-pandemic recovery have eased substantially, which is likely to prompt the central bank to deliver more rate cuts than almost any... 17th July 2023 · 13 mins read
China Rapid Response GDP (Q2) & Activity (Jun.) GDP growth slowed more quickly than expected in Q2 due to a rapid fizzling out of the reopening boost. Continued weakness in the property sector, possible loosening in the labour market and few signs... 17th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Hawkish hike still likely to be the last in this cycle The Bank of Canada struck a hawkish tone at its meeting this week, emphasising persistent excess demand and sticky price inflation. Nonetheless, with the upgrades to the Bank’s GDP and inflation... 14th July 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Public finance risks in Colombia, boom in Mexico? The concerns about Colombia’s public finances that flared up this week are warranted in our view. We think that the public debt burden will remain well above its pre-pandemic level and higher than in... 14th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Loadshedding in SA, Kenya protests, Nigeria policy shift Cold weather in South Africa prompted officials to return to Stage 6 loadshedding this week, threatening a fresh blow to the economy. We doubt that concerns about the inflationary impact of power cuts... 14th July 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Tighter policy on the cards, Germany’s China Strategy This week brought another raft of weak data on the euro-zone economy. And further struggles lie ahead, with the minutes of the June ECB meeting and a statement released by EU finance ministers... 14th July 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey policy, Polish spending, Russia’s current account The raft of data for May out of Turkey this week underscored the precarious state of the economy prior to the shift back to orthodox economic policymaking. The central bank needs to use next week’s... 14th July 2023 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Jul. 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 14th July 2023 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Targeted rather than broad policy support Policymakers have taken further steps to support the economy this week. But these moves have been targeted at struggling sectors rather than the wider economy through broad policy stimulus. We think... 14th July 2023 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update GDP and inflation data support the case for MAS easing Data released today show Singapore's economy remains very weak and we continue to expect growth to come in well below consensus this year. With inflation also falling back sharply, we expect the... 14th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Sanctions, war and Russia's economy: what next? Russia’s economy has adapted to Western sanctions better than had been expected so far, but maintaining macroeconomic stability is now becoming more challenging and depends in large part on the... 13th July 2023 · 26 mins read
Latin America Economics Update El Niño presents mixed risks for Lat Am The likelihood of an El Niño event over the second half of the year raises the risk that activity is disrupted, inflation falls more slowly than we currently expect, and central banks’ monetary easing... 13th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt privatisations, Dubai real estate A round of state asset sales announced in Egypt this week suggests that there is fresh impetus behind the privatisation drive and that the government is pushing to get the IMF deal back on track. But... 13th July 2023 · 7 mins read
