RBNZ Watch RBNZ to stay put, rate cuts only in Q1 2024 Having raised rates more aggressively than any other developed market central bank, we think the RBNZ’s tightening cycle is now over. The Bank has already succeeded in sending the economy into... 5th July 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Industrial Production (May 2023) The weaker-than-expected 0.3% m/m rise in Brazilian industrial production in May only partly reverses April’s 0.6% m/m decline and suggests that industry remained weak over the course of the second... 4th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Fall in inflation keeps BoK rate cut in play Further falls in inflation and the weakness of the most recent activity data support our view that the Bank of Korea (BoK) will shift to loosening monetary policy sooner than when others expect. 4th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Broad-based weakness in EM industry The widespread falls in the EM manufacturing PMIs for June suggest that industry continued to struggle in Q2 and we think further weakness lies in store. Taken together with the easing price pressures... 3rd July 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Weak demand set to weigh on industry further The latest PMIs suggest that not only did global manufacturing activity contract at the end of Q2, but the outlook for the manufacturing sector also seems to have deteriorated further. At least the... 3rd July 2023 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jun.) The further fall in the ISM manufacturing index to 46.0 in June, from 46.9, is difficult to square with claims from some commentators that economic growth is rebounding and provides further reason to... 3rd July 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI fell in June to its lowest level since mid-2021 and remains consistent with declines in output in the sector over the coming months. The survey also shows that price... 3rd July 2023 · 2 mins read
India Rapid Response Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) India’s manufacturing PMI edged down in June after reaching a 31-month high in the previous month. This points to slight cooling in growth in the manufacturing sector and we think further slowdown... 3rd July 2023 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs & Korea Trade (June.) Manufacturing PMIs declined across most of Emerging Asia and the underlying data point to further weakness ahead. Falling new orders and elevated inventory levels are likely to continue to weigh on... 3rd July 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan BoJ Tankan (Q2 2023) Today’s Tankan survey showed a turnaround for the flagging manufacturing sector, while the services sector has become even more bullish. And the rise in business condition readings across all... 3rd July 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Case for July hike less compelling There was plenty for the Bank of Canada to digest this week, with the data showing that core inflation fell in May even as GDP growth picked up strongly again. The resilience of economic activity... 30th June 2023 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s survey results unlikely to prevent another hike The Bank of Canada’s quarterly business and consumer surveys showed a broad decline in inflation expectations and are consistent with a renewed slowdown in GDP growth. The Bank could use those... 30th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Apr.) The stagnation in GDP in April was weaker than expected but, with the preliminary estimate pointing to a sharp rise in GDP in May, quarterly growth should still be a touch higher than the Bank of... 30th June 2023 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Jun. 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 30th June 2023 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Q1 2023 Final) The final Q1 2023 GDP data confirms that the economy steered clear of a recession at the start of 2023. But with around 60% of the drag from higher interest rates yet to be felt, we still think the... 30th June 2023 · 2 mins read
