RBNZ Watch RBNZ done hiking, rate cuts in Q1 2024 With inflation coming off the boil and labour market conditions starting to turn, we suspect that Reserve Bank of New Zealand will not lift interest rates any higher. To be sure, the Bank is likely to... 9th August 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (June) German industrial output fell in June and we expect it to decline further in the rest of this year as high interest rates and weakening demand take a toll on production. 7th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Indonesia GDP (Q2 2023) Official figures show Indonesia’s economy grew by 5.2% y/y in the second quarter of the year, slightly higher than the 5.0% growth rate recorded in Q1. In contrast, our own Activity Tracker suggests... 7th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Rate cuts approaching in CEE, retail downturn passing Expectations for the start of monetary easing cycles in Poland and Czechia strengthened this week and the debate now is about whether or not central banks will cut interest rates at their next... 4th August 2023 · 9 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria unorthodox remarks, weak South Africa activity Amid signs that the removal of fuel subsidies and devaluation of the naira are weighing on Nigeria’s economy, comments from President Tinubu and potential cabinet members this week reinforced our... 4th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone won’t keep dodging recession There was something for both the bulls and bears in the euro-zone’s Q2 GDP data, but we fall into the latter camp. We have tweaked our GDP forecasts but still think that the economy will slip into a... 4th August 2023 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BSP in no rush to cut, Indonesia’s dodgy GDP data Headline inflation in the Philippines fell sharply last month, but with the core rate still elevated and worries about the inflationary impact of El Niño rising, the central bank (BSP) is in no rush... 4th August 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (June 2023) Euro-zone retail sales fell in June and we expect them to continue to trend down over the rest of this year as high interest rates take an increasing toll on consumers. 4th August 2023 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA unlikely to lift rates any higher With the Reserve Bank of Australia having left its cash rate unchanged for two consecutive meetings, we think its tightening cycle is at an end. Indeed, the RBA appears increasingly concerned that... 4th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (August 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 3rd August 2023 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Record SAIBOR, Egypt FX crunch, Saudi extends oil cut The Saudi Arabian interbank rate hit its highest level in over two decades and, with credit growth in the Kingdom slowing, pressure is likely to mount on the Saudi Central Bank to intervene and inject... 3rd August 2023 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update UAE: a soft 2023, but set to be GCC top performer in 2024 We have collated a range of low-profile activity data for the UAE that point to strong activity in the non-oil economy. But this won’t be enough to offset the impact of oil production cuts. Prospects... 3rd August 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response PMIs (Jul. 23) July’s batch of PMIs for the region were a mixed bag, with the surveys from the Gulf falling back as they did in many other emerging markets but still pointing to robust non-oil activity. Elsewhere... 3rd August 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Jul.) The final euro-zone PMIs confirmed that economic conditions deteriorated in July, with the Composite index consistent with GDP declining slightly. We continue to expect the euro-zone economy to fall... 3rd August 2023 · 2 mins read
