Global Economics Update PMIs point to weaker growth in most DMs The latest flash PMIs suggest that while industry continues to struggle across advanced economies, services activity is now slowing in Europe too. While reduced political uncertainty seems to have... 22nd November 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Will weak activity prompt the BoE to cut rates faster? While the rebound in CPI inflation in October strengthens the case for caution at the Bank of England, the worrying news on activity recently may mean some Monetary Policy Committee members reconsider... 22nd November 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Focus What will US protectionism mean for the euro-zone? Our base case is that protectionist policies from the US next year will have only a small economic impact on Europe, but the fallout will vary between countries and there are risks of greater damage... 22nd November 2024 · 20 mins read
India Economics Weekly Air pollution, friendshoring, Governor Das to stay? Air quality levels in India have been among the worst on record this week and the country's reliance on coal suggests that this will remain an economic headwind for a long time to come. Otherwise... 22nd November 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Nov. 2024) At face value, the fall in the composite PMI from 51.8 in October to 49.9 in November suggests that real GDP growth is contracting in the middle of Q4, following a muted expansion of 0.1% q/q in Q3... 22nd November 2024 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Fiscal spending jumps, but boost will be short-lived Fiscal spending accelerated sharply in October, boosting both retail sales and infrastructure investment. It will remain strong in the near-term given that local governments still have plenty of... 22nd November 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Stillborn student cap adds to inflationary pressure The government's planned caps on foreign students won't see the light of the day because the Senate won't approve them. While foreign student commencement will still fall over the coming year, the... 22nd November 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Flash PMIs (Nov. 24) The renewed rise in the composite PMI supports our view that activity will continue to expand at a robust pace in the remainder of this year. Today’s flash estimate showed that the manufacturing PMI... 22nd November 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Romania’s election: macro stability in the balance Romania will elect a new government over the coming weeks at a time when the economy is performing poorly, inflation is running above target, and macroeconomic stability depends on policymakers... 21st November 2024 · 22 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Morocco’s economy to accelerate Morocco’s weaker economic performance this year is likely to be a blip. Buoyed by low and stable inflation, looser monetary policy, and a burgeoning manufacturing sector, we expect Morocco’s economy... 21st November 2024 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Antipodean central banks will tread different paths on policy over the forecast horizon. With the... 21st November 2024 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s activity data signals soft end to Q3 South Africa’s activity data for September points to a subdued end to Q3, but we think this softer patch will be short-lived as low inflation and the SARB’s easing cycle provide some support to demand... 20th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ still on track to cut rates to 2.25% We expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut its policy rate by 50bp, to 4.25%, at its meeting next week. With inflation back at target, the labour market loosening rapidly and activity in the... 20th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Growth in the Andes to disappoint The latest data suggest that Colombia and Chile underperformed Peru’s economy in Q3. Looking ahead, we think that lower prices for key commodity exports combined with relatively tight fiscal stances... 19th November 2024 · 2 mins read
