India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy appears still to be holding up well in the second half of the year. And although... 18th October 2023 · 1 min read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Activity Data (Aug.) The batch of South African activity data for August was a mixed bag, but the overall picture is that the economy struggled for growth in Q3. And tight policy means that growth in 2024 will be modest... 18th October 2023 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response GDP (Q3) & Activity (Sep.) According to official GDP, growth more than doubled in q/q terms between Q2 and Q3, reaching a healthy 5.3% annualised rate. Our China Activity Proxy suggests that momentum isn’t quite this strong... 18th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Focus Chapter 2: How will the savings/investment balance affect r*? Why savings and investment incentives will become better aligned in the next decade than over the past 20 years, causing r* to rise. 17th October 2023 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Focus Chapter 1: Will stronger potential growth boost r*? Examining how the drivers that have been pulling down equilibrium rates are fading, and the strengthening forces that will push rates higher in the coming decade. 17th October 2023 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Focus Introduction and framework The analytical framework for our r* research, where equilibrium interest rates are determined by the potential rate of GDP growth and other factors which influence the desire to save or invest. 17th October 2023 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Focus r* and the end of the ultra-low rates era: executive summary Highlighting the key takeaways from our in-depth new analysis on equilibrium real interest rates in the post-pandemic global economy. 17th October 2023 · 0 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Stakes in Argentina’s election couldn’t be higher Argentines face the choice between a shock-therapy style approach to tackling the country’s economic issues or more of the same unorthodox policymaking when they head to the polls in Sunday’s... 17th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Where do things stand in Egypt? It has been almost a year since Egypt reached a staff-level agreement with the IMF, but progress on key policies that form part of the program has stalled. The pound has been a de-facto peg since... 17th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Event Drop-In: r* and the end of the ultra-low rates era 1698755400 What will a world of structurally higher interest rates look like? How will central bank behaviour change in the coming years? What will this mean for market returns?
Europe Rapid Response German ZEW (October) Although the headline ZEW survey for Germany rose in October it was still very weak, while the low reading for the current conditions index supports our view that the economy is in recession. 17th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela: raising oil output will be a long journey The reported deal that is close to being reached to lift US sanctions on Venezuela’s oil sector in return for competitive elections would help to raise the country’s oil output from very depressed... 16th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s surveys unlikely to prompt another hike The Bank of Canada’s quarterly surveys show that businesses’ inflation expectations continue to decline, albeit slowly, and point to a growing risk that the economy will fall into recession... 16th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi set for weakest GDP growth in the Gulf this year Saudi Arabia’s economy is in a recession and, with oil output cuts extended until the end of this year at least, GDP will contract further. We think that the economy will shrink by 1.3% this year... 16th October 2023 · 4 mins read
