Global Economics Update

What’s behind US economic exceptionalism?

Larger government stimulus during the pandemic and a higher propensity to run down “excess savings” have contributed to particularly strong growth in the US. On the other hand, a significant terms of...

27th February 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Monthly data overstating German industrial decline

Monthly industrial production data have been overstating the decline in German industry. Nonetheless, the more accurate gross value added measure still shows that activity has been falling.

27th February 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Feb. 2024)

Our Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa will strengthen a little...

26th February 2024 · 1 min read

Japan Economics Update

Trump tariffs a net negative for Japan in the long run

We estimate that in the near-term, the drag on Japan’s exports resulting from of a universal 10% US import tariff could be nearly offset by Japan gaining market share at the expense of China in...

26th February 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

CEE wage growth still hot, new Russia sanctions

The latest wage data released out of Poland and Hungary this week showed that labour cost pressures have remained very strong in parts of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). So despite another slew of...

23rd February 2024 · 9 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Venezuelan inflation, Mexico’s slowdown

Inflation and activity figures out of Mexico this week bolster our view that consensus growth forecasts for 2024 look a bit too optimistic and that Banxico will start its monetary easing cycle next...

23rd February 2024 · 6 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

Underlying inflation still a worry, more German gloom

The recent increase in surveys of price pressures and the strong German wage figures released this week suggest there is still not enough evidence to convince the ECB that underlying inflationary...

23rd February 2024 · 9 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Bank of Thailand under pressure to cut interest rates

Thailand has experienced by far the slowest recovery from the pandemic in the region – with GDP just 0.5% bigger than it was in the final quarter of 2019. While much of the weakness is due to the slow...

23rd February 2024 · 7 mins read

India Economics Weekly

RBI minutes highlight first signs of dissent

The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s February policy meeting released this week show the first signs of dissent as MPC member Jayanth Varma argued that a cut to the repo rate would be prudent to show...

23rd February 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Germany Ifo Survey (Feb. 2024)

The small rise in the Ifo Business Climate Index in February left the index close to a post-pandemic low and suggests that the German economy continued to shrink in Q1.

23rd February 2024 · 1 min read

China Economics Focus

Trump tariffs: round two would be more damaging

Donald Trump’s previous tariffs did surprisingly little damage to China’s economy, but China may find it harder to shrug off the damage in a rematch. Mr Trump is threatening larger tariff increases if...

23rd February 2024 · 22 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Is the plunge in imports the canary in the coalmine?

Given that GDP has already contracted for two consecutive quarters, the plunge in imports in January and the fall in the manufacturing PMI to the lowest level since 2020 in February hardly instill...

23rd February 2024 · 8 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Survey data point to resilience in economic activity

Flash PMI data published yesterday showed that Australia's composite output index rose to a 10-month high in February. Taken together with other leading indicators, the data suggest upside risks to...

23rd February 2024 · 5 mins read

Global Economics Update

PMIs point to stubborn price pressures in Europe

Februarys’ flash PMI surveys suggest that economic activity improved in Europe at the start of this year. But services prices pressures remained elevated, especially in the UK and euro-zone, meaning...

22nd February 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (February 2024)

Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest monthly activity data suggest that Mexico and Brazil ended 2023 on a weak note, a...

22nd February 2024 · 1 min read