Rolling tariff threat a downside risk to Canadian GDP

Although President Trump has hit pause on tariffs on Canada, his communications suggest he still wants a broader agreement on various trade issues. Given the chaotic political situation in Canada, it seems unlikely that such an agreement can be made in just one month, raising the risk that Canada will face rolling tariff threats for the foreseeable future. This will weigh on business investment, even if those 25% tariffs are never imposed, so we are trimming our forecasts for GDP growth this year.