Bonds Update Tariffs matter more for Canadian markets than the election While a notable shift in Canadian fiscal policy is likely regardless of who wins the upcoming election, we doubt this will move the needle for the loonie or Canadian government bonds, given that the... 18th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Mar. 2025) While unseasonably severe winter weather has undoubtedly played some role in the recent weakness of home sales, we suspect the sharp drop in house prices in February can also be blamed on the growing... 17th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update BoC warns it must protect against tariff-induced inflation Although the Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 25bp again today, it also warned that “monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war” and that it must guard against tariff-related rises... 12th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Tariffs risk plunging Canada into recession If the US tariffs remain in place, Canada will undoubtedly fall into recession. The limited decline in the loonie so far suggests markets are still pricing in a quick U-turn from the Trump... 4th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Is the US bloc splintering? The events of the past two weeks have called into question whether the US is severing ties not just with adversaries such as China but also allies, including Canada, Mexico and the European Union... 4th March 2025 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update Trump hits Canada, China and Mexico with more tariffs President Donald Trump’s has claimed that there is “no room left’ for Canada and Mexico to avoid the imposition of 25% across-the-board tariffs at midnight tonight and he has reportedly signed a... 3rd March 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Is the BoC right to ignore CPI-trim and CPI-median? The Bank of Canada has downplayed the recent stronger monthly increases in its preferred CPI-trim and CPI-median core measures, but we are not convinced by the Bank’s claim that these measures are... 19th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Feb. 2025) The plunge in the sales-to-new listings ratio in January is a downside risk to our view that house prices will recover this year, particularly amid anecdotal evidence that US tariff threats are... 18th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Economics Update: Steel and aluminum tariffs will cause little harm The newly-announced 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports entering the US will have a limited impact on the Canadian economy given that exports of these products account for just 1% of GDP... 10th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Rolling tariff threat a downside risk to Canadian GDP Although President Trump has hit pause on tariffs on Canada, his communications suggest he still wants a broader agreement on various trade issues. Given the chaotic political situation in Canada, it... 4th February 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Trump hits Canada, China and Mexico with tariffs President Donald Trump’s decision to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and an additional 10% tariff on China from this coming Tuesday, (with the only partial exemption for Canadian energy... 2nd February 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank cuts by 25bp amid looming 25% tariff threat With the economy doing better recently, the Bank of Canada’s decision to cut by 25bp today might have been a closer call were it not for the looming threat of tariffs. Admittedly, the Bank hinted that... 29th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update What if Trump imposes tariffs on Canada and Mexico? This Update answers some key questions about the likely implications of the US imposing 25% tariffs against Canada and Mexico. Our current forecasts are based on the assumption of a 10% universal... 27th January 2025 · 7 mins read
US Economics Update What to make of Trump’s latest trade plans? The “America First Trade Policy” White House memorandum makes it clear that tariffs are coming, although we still have little clarity on the timing. There are some signs that a universal tariff could... 21st January 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s surveys show steady improvement The Bank of Canada’s latest business and consumer surveys support our view that GDP growth will pick-up this quarter and suggest there are some upside risks to our forecast for another 75bp of... 20th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Housing Watch (Jan. 2025) The rise in house prices in December builds on November’s gain, providing some support to our view that house prices will rise by a healthy 4% this year. That said, with the sales-to-new listing ratio... 16th January 2025 · 4 mins read
