Canada Economics Update Bank cautiously pushes back against rate hike expectations The Bank of Canada sounded marginally dovish while keeping its key policy rate at 2.25% today, stating that the growth outlook had worsened and downplaying the risks of second-round effects from... 18th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Mar. 2026) There is no relief in sight for the troubled housing market, with the spike in global oil prices likely to push up mortgage rates in the coming weeks. That has led us to downgrade our forecast for... 17th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update What do higher oil prices mean for Canada? Higher oil prices are positive for the Canadian economy and will boost inflation but, unless prices rise significantly further and stay there for several months, we doubt the Bank of Canada would... 11th March 2026 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update Strategic reserves are no substitute for an open Strait A record-breaking release of emergency oil reserves could cushion a lack of supply from the Middle East and provide some relief to oil prices. However, this would prove temporary with prices likely to... 11th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Scenarios for the Iran war & the macro impact This note assesses the macro and commodity‑market implications of three potential scenarios for the Iran war. In the most benign – a severe but short‑lived conflict – the effects on GDP, inflation and... 10th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Commodities Update Modelling the scale of the energy market disruption This Update introduces our framework for estimating the scale of disruption to energy flows from events in the Middle East as well as three scenarios about how the conflict could play out from here... 9th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update The consequences of the Middle East conflict The global economic impact of conflict in the Middle East will hinge on its effect on energy markets. If oil stays near $70-$80 per barrel, DM inflation will be only about 0.2-0.3 percentage points... 2nd March 2026 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update How the new tariff backdrop affects Canada & Mexico In this Update, we answer some of the questions we have received on how the new US tariff regime (see here ) will impact Canada and Mexico. The big picture is that Canada and Mexico’s weighted-average... 25th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Questions & answers on the new US tariff regime The imposition of a 10% Section 122 tariff on all countries leaves the weighted-average US tariff rate about 3.5%-points lower than was the case under the IEEPA framework, although the difference will... 23rd February 2026 (Updated 24th February 2026) · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Update Glittering TSX unlikely to boost consumption by much There does not appear to have been any meaningful wealth effects on consumption from the skyrocketing TSX, partly because households have faced offsetting falls in house prices. We expect the TSX to... 19th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Feb. 2026) The housing market weakened sharply in January, with home sales and house prices both plunging. While the housing market has been struggling for some time, the record-breaking winter storm that hit... 18th February 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update A primer on the USMCA joint review We think the popularity of the trade agreement among domestic firms, the potential for backlash from an increasingly assertive Congress, and the likelihood of intervention by the Supreme Court should... 18th February 2026 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Update Insufficient defence spending plans won’t lift GDP growth The newly-planned rise in defence expenditure marks a much-needed shift from the Trudeau era but is still too small to sufficiently lift spending above 2% of GDP or generate significant multiplier... 4th February 2026 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank in holding pattern awaiting CUSMA renegotiation The Bank of Canada’s largely-unchanged economic projections are similar to our own, although we think the slow pace of economic growth this year will help ease core price pressures sooner than... 28th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank's surveys provide mixed messages for GDP and jobs There were some signs of life in the Bank of Canada’s latest quarterly surveys, with the pick-up in the indicator of future sales suggesting that the outlook for GDP growth is much better than the... 19th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Jan. 2026) The housing market ended the year on a weak footing, with both sales and house prices continuing to fall. The outlook for this year is a little brighter, with tightening supply of new listings likely... 16th January 2026 · 4 mins read
