Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Israel’s strikes on Iran: assessing the macro impact The overnight strikes by Israel on Iran mark a major escalation in the conflict in the region and, with the oil market tighter than it was a few months ago, the risks to oil prices look more balanced... 13th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Still strong immigration will push unemployment higher Visa approvals for temporary residents have picked up, which suggests that, rather than contracting as the government previously outlined, the population will continue to grow this year. This will... 5th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada bides its time, but cuts still coming The Bank of Canada avoided surprising markets by keeping its policy rate at 2.75% today, as it continues to wait to see the full impact of US trade policy on the economy. Nonetheless, the Bank... 4th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of the US court ruling on tariffs In this Update, we answer several key questions about how the US Court of International Trade tariff ruling might affect the US and other economies. The outlook may now rest on the decision of the... 29th May 2025 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update Tariffs: where we stand and potential flashpoints The recent climbdown has left the effective US tariff on the rest of the world at around 15% as opposed to the 27% which was threatened at the height of this year’s trade war. While this is still the... 13th May 2025 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update Global Trade Stress Monitor To cut through the noise surrounding tariff impacts, we’ve pinpointed seven key stages in the global trade cycle – tracking in real time how each is responding to tariffs. This tool helps clients... 13th May 2025 (Updated 11th June 2025) · 0 mins read
Global Economics Update A truce in the US-China trade war The US and China have each suspended for 90 days all but 10% of their Liberation Day tariffs and cancelled other retaliatory tariffs. This is a substantial de-escalation. However, the US still has... 12th May 2025 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Update The implications of lumber tariffs While higher lumber tariffs will not significantly impact GDP growth in the US or Canada, they will drive up costs for US homebuilders. As affordability is already stretched, it is unlikely that... 29th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Update What does the election mean for Canada's economy and markets? Although the Liberals have just missed out on a majority, Prime Minister Mark Carney should still be able to implement his fiscal plans with support from the NDP or Bloc Québécois. If anything, the... 29th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada holds but further cuts likely The Bank of Canada’s decision to keep interest rates at 2.75% today was not a big surprise given recent above-target core CPI gains, concerns about tariff-induced price rises and uncertainty about the... 16th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Apr. 25) The housing market took another leg down in March, with the larger decline in single-family home prices suggesting that owner-occupiers rather than investors are behind the most recent weakness... 15th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Mapping out trade war scenarios President Trump’s trade war has created material downside risks for the global economy. Our forecasts assume that tariffs on most countries outside China will stay at 10% and retaliation by other... 10th April 2025 · 9 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada set for sustained period of weak growth We have updated our forecasts for Canada to account for the latest changes in US trade policy. A recession should be avoided, but the harsh tariffs on the vehicle sector and uncertainty about the... 10th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update BoC’s surveys hold up, but already out of date The Bank of Canada’s quarterly business and consumer surveys were nowhere near as bad as we feared, but that may only be because the survey periods preceded the most recent tariff announcements... 7th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Answering your questions about Liberation Day tariffs We hosted two online Drop-In sessions on 3rd April to discuss the fallout from President Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement. (See a recording here.) This Update contains answers to some of the... 3rd April 2025 · 9 mins read
Canada Economics Update Trump makes Canada okay again Canada has escaped much more lightly than we feared from President Trump’s big announcement, with the import-weighted US tariff likely to be 8% based on current plans and potentially below 5% in the... 3rd April 2025 · 3 mins read
