Bank’s surveys highlight vulnerability outside of oil sector

The Bank of Canada’s latest quarterly surveys point to an economy tarnished by the oil price shock, with improvements in activity isolated to the oil sector. Activity in the non-oil economy should fare better this quarter given that WTI has fallen back below $70 per barrel. However, we continue to expect the dual headwinds of weak immigration and CUSMA-related uncertainty to keep GDP growth well below its trend pace this year, preventing the Bank of Canada from raising interest rates.